"The Red Line": "Bypassing Kyiv and the EU and 'solving problems' with Americans is not feasible."

What will be the cost of compromise in negotiations with Ukraine?

Author: Dmitry Rodionov

Experts participating in the discussion:

  • Vsevolod Shymov
  • Dmitry Yerov
  • Ivan Mezuzho

A senior Russian source familiar with the stance of the Kremlin's top leadership told Reuters that Russian President Vladimir Putin "is ready to sign a peace agreement but not at any cost."

The source said that Putin wants Western countries to give him "written" commitments not to expand NATO eastward, thereby "formally excluding the possibility of Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova joining the alliance."

Reuters also listed other demands from Russia: Ukraine maintaining neutral status, lifting some Western sanctions, resolving frozen asset issues, and protecting Russian-speaking residents within Ukraine.

The Reuters source revealed that Putin's position on territorial issues has "hardened." Currently, Moscow insists on publicly recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic, the Luhansk People's Republic, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and Kherson Oblast as fully incorporated into Russian jurisdiction.

  • “Firstly, we do not know if the information published by Reuters is true,” said Ivan Mezuzho, political scientist and chairman of the Public Organization Center for Political Education in Russia. “How much truth is there in this report? Secondly, theoretically, Russia can indeed demand written guarantees from the West not to expand NATO eastward. Of course, any document signed by the West may become a piece of paper. Nevertheless, having such a written commitment is better than having none. Back then, former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev believed the verbal promises made by the West regarding NATO – we are now suffering the consequences of these legally unbinding negotiations.”
  • “Free Media: What does 'lifting some Western sanctions' mean? Why not all? Does it refer to American sanctions? Clearly, Europe will not lift its own sanctions...”
  • “It might indeed refer to partial sanctions because Europe has embarked on an escalation route, and only the United States has shown willingness to negotiate with Russia.”
  • “Free Media: Protecting Russian-speaking residents in Ukraine. Who will ensure this, and how?”
  • “In Ukrainian laws or future educational systems, rights of the Russian ethnic group and Russian culture can be stipulated. For instance, Russian could be granted the status of a national language. However, this is merely our theoretical speculation. In reality, various different solutions may exist.”
  • “Free Media: So what about the goals and tasks of the special military operation? Does reaching a compromise mean we abandon completing these objectives?”
  • “No. This is about completing the tasks of the special military operation through peaceful means. From the first day of the special military operation, Russia has never abandoned the predetermined tasks at the political level.”
  • “Free Media: Assuming the Americans agree, but Zelensky insists on the 1991 borders. What should be negotiated, and with whom?”
  • “That’s something the Americans have to worry about. If they agree, they must constrain Zelensky.”

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  • “In fact, even without the formal expansion of NATO, many countries have become de facto affiliated members of the alliance,” noted Vsevolod Shymov, advisor to the Chairman of the Baltic Studies Association of Russia. “Finland and Sweden are examples. If Ukraine retains its pro-Western, anti-Russian regime, even without officially joining NATO, it will find ways to cooperate with the alliance.”
  • “Free Media: At the end of 2021, Moscow presented security guarantee requirements to the West, including no eastward expansion of NATO. We were not heard back then. Do you think they have started to understand now? Has the special military operation made them see certain issues clearly?”
  • “At least, they certainly will not admit a country involved in armed conflict with Russia into NATO. Moreover, if there are unresolved territorial disputes, Ukraine cannot become a member of NATO – the same applies to Georgia and Moldova. However, this does not mean they will not closely collaborate with these countries and provide them with weapons.”
  • “Free Media: The Americans themselves mentioned the non-expansion of NATO and even acknowledged certain territories (such as Crimea). But they are not even prepared to thoroughly resolve territorial issues. What else can be discussed?”
  • “The Americans can acknowledge or not acknowledge anything, but they absolutely cannot force the Kiev regime to renounce its claims over its former territories. Moreover, there is the EU, which is not prepared to recognize new borders and will incite Ukraine to continue the conflict.”

"Bypassing Kyiv and the EU to 'solve problems' with Americans is not feasible."

  • “Free Media: With whom exactly should the agreement be signed: with Ukraine or with the US? After all, some issues depend entirely on Ukraine (guaranteeing the rights of Russian speakers), some fall under joint jurisdiction (recognizing the territorial status quo), and some are entirely the responsibility of the US (NATO)…”
  • “Formally, all agreements should be signed with Ukraine since it is a party to the conflict, not the US or the EU. But in reality, everyone knows that nothing can be done without agreements with the US and the EU. Currently, Washington and Brussels have very different attitudes towards the Ukrainian issue.”

    We cannot ignore the subjectivity of Kyiv, nor underestimate it. The Kyiv regime will resolutely resist any agreement involving territorial losses until the very last moment.

    As for the rights of Russian speakers, in principle, no one will provide guarantees. The US and the EU have repeatedly shown complete disregard for the interests of Russian speakers in the Baltic states or Ukraine. Of course, the Kyiv regime itself will not comply with any agreements, even if they are signed.

    Back then, the Polish Republic signed the "Permanent Peace Treaty" with Russia, according to which Poland was obligated to protect the rights of Orthodox Christians. In fact, after the signing of the peace treaty, the persecution of Orthodox believers in Poland worsened. The rights of Russian speakers in Ukraine will also follow this pattern. Any "final document" cannot guarantee their rights.

    Currently, neither Kyiv, the US, nor the EU have any reason to make significant concessions to Russia. If Russian troops were at the gates of Kyiv or attacking Kharkiv, the situation would be different. But currently, the West firmly believes that they can "continue the conflict through attrition warfare" without posing serious threats to themselves or the Kyiv regime…

  • “There is a lot of information about the conditions for signing a peace agreement in Ukraine, but not all media reports are credible,” said Dmitry Yerov, associate professor at the Department of Political Science of the Russian Government Finance University. “Especially information disseminated through Western media.”

In general, Russia's demands have long been known and have been raised multiple times. At one point, even the Trump administration acknowledged that Ukraine's admission to NATO was unrealistic and generally understood Russia's principled stance. But this is precisely the core issue that has led to the deadlock in negotiations. Both Russia and Ukraine have their so-called "red lines"...

Europe and the US also have their own red lines. The fundamental difference lies in that for Russia, these "red lines" are about security issues, while Ukraine has sold itself to the West and depends on the West, whereas Europe and the US continue to profit from the military action and gain various benefits...

In this context, Europe is actively militarizing, increasing the additional risk of conflict escalation. Clearly, a peace agreement must be signed by Russia and Ukraine. Its terms should obviously be based on the advantage held by one side on the battlefield. But the key question is, who on the Ukrainian side will sign the document...

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Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7509689268445446719/

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