China Economic Daily reporter Gu Mengxuan, Li Zhenghao, Guangzhou, Beijing report
After a two-year period of declining prices and capacity contraction, the memory market has rebounded strongly. "China Business Daily" reporters checked several popular computer memory modules on the "Install Assistant" mini-program and found that the prices of many memory modules have risen significantly in recent days. For example, the Acer Predator DDR5 memory module, which was around 6200 yuan for sets of four or more in late September, had surged to 8000 yuan by around November 20.
According to TrendForce's (TrendForce) latest released DRAM spot price trend report, due to buyers' rush to purchase quotes, DRAM spot prices have soared, with DDR5 chips rising by 30% within a week. This is because the overall supply remains tight, and major module manufacturers continue to limit shipments. In the NAND aspect, due to limited spot supply, transactions are relatively scattered, and as the market tightens, prices are expected to rise further.
More importantly, the memory market has entered a strong upward cycle, leading to increased system costs and forcing terminal pricing to increase, thus impacting the consumer market.
Several industry insiders told the reporter that this round of memory chip price increases benefits upstream and midstream enterprises in the storage industry chain, but imposes certain cost pressures on downstream enterprises. However, during this upswing cycle, the localization of storage equipment has indeed encountered an opportunity for accelerated development.
Tian Lihui, Director of the Institute of Financial Development at Nankai University, who spoke to the reporter, pointed out that the current rise in memory chip prices is driven by "the explosion of AI demand + active adjustment on the supply side." The explosive growth of AI computing power has led to an exponential increase in the demand for storage in AI servers, with each AI server using 8 times more DRAM than traditional servers and 3 times more NAND. At the same time, giants such as Samsung and SK Hynix have shifted their production capacity from traditional DRAM to high-end products like HBM, causing structural tension in traditional storage supply. Additionally, international tariff barriers and original factory voluntary production cuts have all contributed to higher prices, with the DRAM inventory cycle drastically decreasing and severe imbalances in market supply and demand.
The price increase in memory chips has caused a shortage surge
FusionWorldwide's president, Toby Gonnemann, recently told the media that the contract price for 32GB DDR5 server memory modules delivered by Samsung Electronics in November has surged from $149 in September to $239, a 60% increase.
TrendForce expects that as one of the main types of memory chips, DRAM will bring total industry revenue next year to more than four times the low point in 2023 - reaching a historical high of about $231 billion.
The shortage caused by the price increase of memory has also spread. According to TrendForce data, in terms of NAND Flash, the spot price of NAND Flash has risen more obviously, driven by the release of contract prices and significant increases. However, due to the original factory's profit maximization orientation, the silicon wafer resources released are very limited; meanwhile, manufacturers holding inventory expect prices to continue to rise, so they are reluctant to sell, leading to a situation where "one product is hard to find."
Chen Peiming, General Manager of Winbond Electronics, gave a more aggressive judgment at a recent online shareholders' meeting: "The shortage of DDR5 and DDR4 may not change until 2027."
Researcher Wan Li of the Jia'an Research Institute told the reporter that the continuous price increase of storage chips (including DRAM and NAND) globally is mainly driven by three key factors: first, the acceleration of artificial intelligence, big data centers, and cloud infrastructure construction, which has triggered a boom in demand for large-capacity, high-bandwidth storage, pushing chip buyers to lock in supplies in advance; second, the supply side has not fully caught up, with some manufacturers shifting to more high-end products (such as HBM, high-bandwidth memory) or prioritizing service for data center customers, resulting in lag in the expansion of traditional storage production lines and improvement of yield rates; third, terminal device manufacturers (such as mobile phones, laptops) have felt the pressure brought by the rising cost of memory, and some manufacturers have publicly stated that the cost increase may lead to an increase in terminal prices. "This means that the price increase is not only an issue within the storage industry, but it may also gradually transmit layer by layer to the consumer electronics and cloud services sectors," said Wan Li.
Jin Ying Fund's relevant person in charge told the reporter that some major chip manufacturers have shifted more capacity to produce HBM and server-specific DDR5 memory, leading to a sharp reduction in the supply of consumer electronics' LPDDR and DDR4 products. In addition, the inventory cycle of the industry has reached its bottom, and the behavior of upstream stockpiling and downstream panic purchasing is intensifying the continued price increase of storage.
Zhang Siyuan, a special research fellow at Suzhou Bank, told the reporter that after the inventory reduction in 2022–2023, the global storage industry's inventory days fell below 60 from 120, reaching historically low levels. Since the third quarter of this year, contract manufacturers have received a large number of urgent orders for NOR/NAND Flash. Some customers have turned to the spot market to ensure supply, pushing up the spot price of DDR4 16GB by 10% in October, forming a "low inventory + urgent orders" price acceleration cycle.
Downstream mobile phone manufacturers forced to raise prices
Under the above background, multiple links in the storage chip industry chain, including design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, distribution, are facing value re-evaluation.
A report from Yongxing Securities shows that according to information from the storage market information platform CFM Flash Market, under the intervention of the original factory supply, the prices of all resources in the spot trade end, including NAND and DRAM, have quickly risen. Under the influence of the increasing upstream resources and tightening supply, the corresponding product production costs have significantly increased, triggering a price increase wave across various application ends such as servers, mobile phones, and PCs. Currently, the attitude of the supply side remains the main factor influencing the entire storage market. If the resource side continues to remain tight in the future, the balance of supply and demand will accelerate towards the seller, and the storage manufacturers' emotions of controlling goods and being reluctant to sell will become even stronger, so the prices of storage finished products will continue to rise.
Zhao Haijun, co-CEO of SMIC, recently stated at an earnings conference that due to the shortage and rising prices of storage chips, industries such as mobile phones and network communication equipment are being cautious about purchasing.
Tian Lihui told the reporter that the industry chain presents a "two extremes" pattern, with varying depths of impact. The profits of the upstream original factories have increased, while the midstream manufacturers face cost pressures, and the downstream mobile phone manufacturers are forced to raise prices. For example, Transsion Holdings (688036.SH) saw a decline in net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with mid-to-high-end models generally raising prices. However, this has also accelerated the development of domestic companies, and domestic products are rapidly expanding their market share.
Wan Li told the reporter that this round of price increase has a clear "differentiation effect" on the storage industry chain. For upstream design and manufacturing companies, this means an increase in product pricing power and improved gross margins, thereby enhancing the expectation of profit recovery. For midstream packaging and testing and storage module manufacturers, the high price provides a certain profit margin, which is beneficial for improving the pricing position. However, for downstream terminal manufacturers, when the cost of storage chips rises but the terminal demand does not synchronize, it may result in compressed profits or passive price increases. Moreover, if the price increase expectation is too strong but the downstream demand does not quickly release, it could lead to inventory accumulation or order delays, posing challenges for midstream manufacturers. For investors, it is particularly important to pay attention to whether the price increase is accompanied by synchronized shipments and payments.
Bi Mengyan, a researcher at Geshang Fund, told the reporter that downstream manufacturers, represented by the smartphone industry, are bearing huge cost pressures. Some mobile phone manufacturers have already reduced their DRAM inventory below three weeks and have suspended purchases for this quarter. Additionally, due to consumers' sensitivity to mobile phone price increases, manufacturers generally adopt a combination strategy of slight price increases and strategic reductions in storage configurations, such as reducing the RAM from 16GB to 12GB in some models.
Domestic enterprises are seizing opportunities for accelerated development
Several interviewees told the reporter that during this upswing cycle, domestic storage equipment companies have seized the opportunity for accelerated development.
Wan Li told the reporter that on one hand, manufacturers need to purchase more key equipment to ensure expansion, and domestic equipment companies are accelerating technological progress under policy and financial support. Currently, domestic equipment companies have made breakthroughs in film deposition, etching, and testing, and are promoting system-level integration. On the other hand, due to the Sino-US trade friction and rising supply chain risks, the domestic industry places greater emphasis on controllability. However, it should be noted that "rapid" is not something that can be achieved overnight, and there is still a gap in cutting-edge aspects such as extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography and high-layer 3D NAND.
Specifically, Northern Semiconductor has obtained the patent for the "etching method for semiconductor stacked structures", and Zhongmei Company has broken through new etching technology. Yangtze Memory Technology has jointly built the country's first silicon-based optical interconnect RAM test line with the Chinese Academy of Sciences. "These breakthroughs are driving China's domestic storage technology from 'following' to 'running alongside', providing technical support to cope with the memory chip price surge, and laying a solid foundation for the self-reliance of China's semiconductor industry," said Tian Lihui.
Zhang Siyuan told the reporter that in terms of etching equipment, Zhongmei Company's 60:1 ultra-high aspect ratio dielectric etching equipment has become a standard for domestic 3D NAND production lines, and the next generation 90:1 equipment is about to be mass-produced, with technical parameters matching those of Applied Materials' similar products. In terms of thin film deposition equipment, Northern Semiconductor's LPCVD equipment has been mass-produced on Yangtze Memory Technology's 232-layer NAND production line, with a coverage rate of 30%; Tuo Jing Technology's ALD equipment has entered Yangtze Memory Technology's 19nm DDR5 production line, replacing Tokyo Electron equipment. In terms of measurement and detection equipment, the bright field nanoscale pattern wafer defect inspection equipment of中科飞测 (Zhongke Feice) has passed verification on the third phase production line of Yangtze Memory, with a yield rate of 99.2%, breaking KLA's monopoly.
At the same time, domestic storage manufacturers are also accelerating their expansion. Zhang Siyuan introduced that the third factory of Yangtze Memory in Wuhan is expected to be put into operation in 2027, with a planned monthly capacity of 150,000 pieces, and the target of domestic equipment utilization rate of 50%. Changxin Memory has launched a plan for the mass production of high-end products, and in the 2026 equipment procurement, the proportion of domestic equipment will increase from 15% to 35%.
Tian Lihui said that this round of the "super cycle" of memory chips not only brings price increases, but also provides a historic opportunity for the rapid rise of the domestic storage industry chain. For domestic companies, it is essential to seize the opportunity of the explosive demand for AI storage and the restructuring of the international supply chain, accelerate technological innovation and market expansion, and promote the process of independent control of the storage industry chain to a new level.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7575277752719311412/
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