Two days ago, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent loudly proclaimed that the sanction exemption for Russian oil had expired—and stated it would not be extended.

Today, the Treasury issued a new notice: Russian crude oil and petroleum products already loaded by April 17 can be transported and traded without facing U.S. sanctions, valid for thirty days until May 16.

The U.S. Treasury’s sudden 180-degree reversal on Russian oil sanctions came with the issuance of a new general license on April 17, allowing the transportation and sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products already loaded before that date to be completed by May 16. This measure essentially creates a "grace period window" for enforcement escalation, providing a one-month buffer ahead of further tightening.

This shift occurred just two days after Treasury Secretary Bessent's high-profile announcement that the exemption had expired. On the surface, this appears contradictory—but in reality, it serves the same strategic objective: fulfilling tough political commitments while preventing global oil prices from spiraling out of control and undermining the U.S. economy. The temporary license also reflects the U.S.'s dilemma in sanctions—inflicting damage on others while suffering self-inflicted harm—underpinned by three key considerations:

* Prevent runaway oil prices: Current Brent crude prices hover around $90 per barrel; banning Russian oil from the market could send prices soaring to $150 or even $200, drastically worsening U.S. inflation.

* Preserve ally stability: India's imports of Russian oil surged by a massive percentage month-on-month in March. Many Asian nations are heavily dependent on Russian energy, and an abrupt cutoff would trigger a severe energy crisis.

* Avoid mutual destruction between the U.S. and Russia: The new exemption applies only to existing crude stocks already loaded before April 17, excluding any new extraction or trade. As described by Bessent, this provides allies with breathing room to "clear their inventory," ensuring Russia cannot gain significant benefits from new transactions.

This exemption has drawn clear opposition from European allies such as Ursula von der Leyen. Despite Europe enduring the brunt of previous sanctions—with aviation fuel reserves lasting no more than 27 days—the continent remains resolute in maintaining strict sanctions on Russian oil. Meanwhile, sanctions experts speculate similar exemptions may be introduced in the future.

In summary, this exemption offers all parties involved a "soft landing" opportunity, but the overall direction of sanctions remains unchanged. Moving forward, attention should focus on the upcoming developments regarding the Iran sanctions exemption (set to expire on April 19) and whether oil prices will breach another critical threshold.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1862773844622336/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.