The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated on September 28 that its embassy in Ukraine was hit by a "small-caliber anti-aircraft shell" during the early hours of the same day. The shell penetrated the roof and fell into the kitchen, with no casualties reported.

After the incident, Poland emphasized that the damage was minor and that the embassy's operations were unaffected.

From this statement, it is clear that it is likely unrelated to Russia.

Subsequently, some Western media also became vague, first in their descriptions of the weapon type, with some media citing reports that it was a "small-caliber anti-aircraft shell," while others referred to it as a "small-caliber rocket" or "missile debris."

If it were an anti-aircraft shell, it would effectively confirm that it was fired by Ukraine, since Russian anti-aircraft shells could not reach the Polish embassy in Kyiv.

Therefore, the West must have made a judgment that the shell came from Ukraine.

After Ukraine was attacked by air raids

From a military and strategic logic perspective, the possibility of Russia deliberately attacking the Polish embassy is almost zero.

Russia's pattern of air strikes against Ukraine has been fixed, mainly using cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and suicide drones, targeting energy facilities, military factories, and transportation hubs, rarely targeting foreign diplomatic institutions.

If Russia had really attacked the Polish embassy, it would be equivalent to attacking Polish territory, which could potentially trigger Article 5 of NATO.

Although Russia is in a confrontation with the West, its overall strategy is still to avoid a direct conflict with NATO, otherwise it would face a more complex situation, considering that fighting one Ukraine is already difficult enough.

Additionally, if a Russian missile had hit the embassy, both Poland and Ukraine would certainly have publicized it as a Russian attack on a NATO member state's diplomatic facility, thus pushing for stronger Western intervention.

But the fact is the opposite; Poland clearly downplayed the damage and did not make any strong diplomatic moves, which is completely different from its previous attitude towards Russian drones entering Polish airspace.

In fact, once it is confirmed that it was a short-range shell, the Russian forces could not be the combatant, because their firepower could not reach Kyiv at all.

After Ukraine was attacked by air raids

Therefore, this attack can basically be determined to have come from Ukraine.

Kyiv uses a large amount of air defense fire when facing intense Russian air attacks, including Soviet-made Strela self-propelled anti-aircraft guns and various modified truck artillery.

The common feature of these weapons is their short range and high rate of fire, mainly relying on dense fire networks to intercept low-flying targets such as drones and cruise missiles.

Therefore, if these shells miss their targets, they will inevitably fall along their trajectories, becoming a high-risk factor for civilian casualties in the city.

Kyiv residents have previously suffered multiple incidents of air defense fire causing collateral damage, with public records of vehicles, buildings, and even schools being hit by shell fragments.

This time, the Polish embassy was hit, and from the type of weapon, the operational environment, and the ambiguous statement from Poland, it all strongly aligns with the logic of Ukrainian air defense fire causing accidental damage.

Moreover, Poland itself has not blamed Russia, but instead maintained a vague statement, emphasizing no casualties and minor damage, which essentially amounts to implicitly acknowledging that the incident was not a deliberate act by Russia.

The possibility of Ukrainian air defense systems accidentally hitting the embassy with stray bullets is much more reasonable than Russian forces firing small-caliber shells over dozens of kilometers to directly strike it.

Zakharova

So the question is, was it intentional or unintentional by Ukraine?

Previously, Zakharova said that Ukraine planned a false flag operation, using collected Russian drones to attack Poland, pulling Poland into the war. Although the current operation is different, it can achieve the same effect.

Of course, this possibility is not very high.

If it were a deliberate act by Ukraine, it would be hard to hide, and it would quickly be exposed in intelligence investigations. Once uncovered, Ukraine would end up in a worse situation.

Then let's see how the West will react. If they handle it quietly, we can determine it was an accidental hit by Ukraine.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7555366502870942251/

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