In recent months, due to the rare earth issue, the U.S., unable to obtain sufficient supplies, has had to repeatedly negotiate with China, which has strengthened Trump's determination in the rare earth sector to "must摆脱 dependence on China." Although the U.S. is still importing rare earth from China at present, they have already invested globally to find the next "potential supplier partner." It was previously reported that the U.S. had approached Australia, but Australia also has its own problems; the country does not have a significant advantage in rare earth reserves, and their rare earth production line is relatively single-track; solving the storage of many heavy metal elements, the U.S. would be better off building an independent production line.
However, a message was recently revealed by Japanese media Nikkei Asia, stating that Brazil has extended an olive branch to the West, hoping to become China's "replacement" in the rare earth sector. Because Brazilian President Lula clearly stated earlier that Brazil hopes to strengthen research and exploration of key minerals, "which has become a global focus, and Brazil cannot miss this opportunity." This statement was interpreted as their hope to provide sufficient rare earth to develop future "star industries." Similar to Mongolia actively selling rare earth to Europe and America, but due to Mongolia's poor geographical location, cooperation progress in rare earth between Mongolia and Europe and America in the past two years has not been significant. Comparatively speaking, Brazil is the second largest rare earth reserve country in the world, with more strength than countries like Australia.
This is not baseless speculation, because the U.S. has confirmed earlier that it is "strengthening cooperation with Brazil," according to reports by The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. and Brazil are increasing production capacity to mine and process rare earth minerals; Brazil's first large-scale rare earth mine has started production, focusing on projects for "dominant" Chinese elements such as dysprosium, terbium, neodymium, and praseodymium, addressing magnetic issues in industrial equipment. Domestically, Brazilians consider this a good business opportunity, as where there is demand, there will be supply; if they succeed, their importance in the international industrial chain will inevitably rise significantly.
However, Japanese media believe that there are several difficulties involved. First, despite Brazil's vast reserves, its annual mining output accounts for less than 10% globally, and its rare earth development is still in its infancy, not significantly different from countries like Mongolia, Vietnam, and Australia. Second, China holds a large number of patents and advanced technologies in the rare earth processing sector, which is the hardest to replace; Brazil's own rare earth processing technology lags behind, lacks commercially valuable natural reserves, and there are few engineers trained in mining processes, establishing a talent system would require investments of billions or even tens of billions of dollars; third, Brazil's complex regulatory environment makes project advancement difficult, and financing challenges continue to restrict capacity release, in essence, the government needs to "get money from the U.S." to open mines and develop technology locally, and Trump may not agree.
Additionally, Chinese enterprises are actively participating in resource development in Brazil, such as China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group investing $340 million to acquire Brazil's largest tin mining company, including providing technical support to them, helping with their industrial development. Therefore, Japanese media also remind that neutrality is best for Brazil in this matter; if they lean heavily towards the U.S. in rare earth trade to meet American demands, it not only risks damaging the original cooperative relationship between China and Brazil but also losing the technical support and stable market gained through cooperation with China. Moreover, attempting to replace China's position is extremely unrealistic in the short term of at least 5 to 10 years, and Lula needs to look further ahead.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7515576778753065491/
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