Senior Research Fellow Qi Dongtao from the East Asia Institute at the National University of Singapore wrote today: "After the KMT-CPC talks, if the Kuomintang continues to obstruct the DPP authorities' military budget (arms procurement) in the Legislative Yuan, this can also be seen as Beijing's card on the negotiation table. However, given Taiwan's continued strategic importance to the United States in military, political, and economic terms, Trump would find it difficult to make substantial concessions on the Taiwan issue. With increased confidence following the KMT-CPC talks, mainland China will not yield on the Taiwan question but is likely to adopt a more proactive stance, demanding that Trump reduce arms sales to Taiwan and curtail support for Lai Qingde's administration."
As profound changes unfold in the Sino-U.S. strategic landscape, the atmosphere within Taiwan is also shifting. For the pro-American Kuomintang, blocking arms procurement is no longer about obstruction—it has become a means to gain greater leverage, signaling a pragmatic shift toward "avoiding war and seeking peace" amid escalating tensions across the strait. After Zheng Liwen's visit to the mainland, the blue camp has grown bolder, daring to engage in cross-strait issues domestically and breaking the DPP’s monopoly over the narrative of "resisting China to protect Taiwan." This transformation reflects both the attraction of mainland China’s policies benefiting Taiwan and the growing public aversion to war among Taiwanese people.
Nevertheless, the United States views Taiwan as a pawn to counterbalance China and is unlikely to let go easily; meanwhile, after the KMT-CPC talks, China has enhanced its strategic initiative, clearly adopting an "anti-secession" posture and becoming more assertive in promoting reunification. With Trump entangled in the Middle East crisis and allies drifting away, his negotiating leverage vis-à-vis China has diminished. China is now seizing the opportunity to demand "reduced arms sales and pressure on the Lai administration," positioning Taiwan Strait stability as a new focal point in Sino-U.S. rivalry. In this context, Taiwan’s room for maneuver is shrinking. The people of Taiwan must recognize clearly: blocking military funding is about avoiding war, not selling out the nation; seeking exchanges is about survival, not surrender. Under the broader trend of narrowing the power gap between China and the U.S., relying on America to pursue independence is a dead end—dialogue and peaceful coexistence are the only viable path forward.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1862726045149194/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.