Abstract: China has only one purpose — to take control of its own destiny.

[By Zhou Shengming of the Observer Network, edited by Gao Xin] According to a Financial Times report on June 5, EU companies are lobbying China to establish a special channel to accelerate the approval of rare earth export licenses.

In April this year, the Trump administration announced "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese goods. In addition to imposing additional tariffs, China also implemented export controls on seven categories of heavy rare earth-related items.

After the Geneva talks between China and the US, both sides agreed to suspend tariff measures within 90 days.

It is worth noting that Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian stated on June 3 that China has earnestly implemented the Geneva consensus. However, the US, without any factual basis, has smeared and accused China, introduced extreme suppression measures such as export control of Chinese chips, suspension of chip design software sales to China, and announcement of revoking Chinese students' visas, seriously damaging the Geneva consensus.

In addition, the EU is also moving toward protectionism, resorting to unilateral economic and trade tools.

Currently, the EU not only imposes unequal high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles but also plans to restrict Chinese companies from selling medical devices to the EU based on the International Procurement Instrument.

Under the unpredictable policies of the Trump administration and the EU's protectionism, China still strictly controls rare earth exports and has launched a rare earth export licensing system.

Great Complaints

Currently, politicians, high-end manufacturing enterprises, and others from multiple countries and regions, including the US, EU, and India, have successively issued warnings about rare earth shortages.

According to Politico on June 3, citing informed sources, the Trump administration is now under "great pressure" because China has made it clear that it is unwilling to export more key minerals such as rare earth elements to the US.

American automakers have begun warning that the supply shortage of rare earth materials caused by China's export controls may force them to shut down production and close factories. Motors in cars require large amounts of rare earth materials, and factory robots also rely on rare earth materials to operate.

Similarly, according to a Reuters report on June 3, Hildegard Mueller, president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), said, "If the current situation does not change quickly, there is no way to exclude the possibility of production delays or even interruptions in German automobile production."

The report also pointed out that diplomats, automakers, and other industry executives from India, Japan, and Europe are urgently seeking meetings with Chinese officials to push for faster approval of rare earth magnet exports.

Years of Building the Chain

China's ability to maintain control over the rare earth issue stems not from temporary efforts but from long-term planning and systematic advancement.

As early as 2011, China began a large-scale rectification of the rare earth industry, cracking down on illegal mining, setting resource quotas, raising environmental standards, and laying the foundation for industrial consolidation.

In October 2016, the "13th Five-Year Plan" for the development of the rare earth industry proposed that by the end of 2020, all rare earth industries in the country would be integrated into six rare earth groups. At the end of 2021, the second round of rare earth group integration began, further consolidating the six rare earth groups into four major rare earth groups, further optimizing the domestic rare earth supply pattern.

Meanwhile, China has not stopped at resource integration but has continuously advanced into downstream high-value-added products of rare earths.

In recent years, through industrial policy guidance and technological investment, the rare earth industrial chain has rapidly extended. High-performance neodymium iron boron magnets, rare earth alloys, and specialized functional materials have become key development areas, driving the transformation of China's rare earth industry from primary products to critical manufacturing materials.

From rare earth resource development, smelting separation, material manufacturing to terminal applications, China is now the only country in the world with a complete rare earth industrial chain.

Additionally, according to Guotai Haitong Securities research reports, by 2024, China will account for 68%, 88%, and 92% of global supplies of rare earth ores, rare earth oxides, and rare earth metals, respectively, occupying an absolute dominant position.

China dominates the global rare earth industrial chain - Guotai Haitong Securities

From resource control, industrial integration to full-chain extension, China has systematically mastered rare earths over several decades.

Today, this "chain" is not only a support for economic development but also the backbone in international games.

A Key to the Future

With the rapid development of new energy vehicles, AI, robotics, high-tech weapons, and other technologies, rare earth elements are becoming the "underlying power" in the global new technology landscape.

Rare earth elements have critical uses and broad application spaces in the military field - Guotai Haitong Securities

The higher the technology develops, the stronger the reliance on rare earths becomes, and China is the global core of this critical resource.

In the field of new energy vehicles, explosive sales growth has created strong demand for rare earths. In 2024, global new energy vehicle total sales are expected to reach approximately 17 million units. Research by Hu'an Securities shows that each pure electric vehicle consumes 5–10 kg of neodymium iron boron, while each plug-in hybrid electric vehicle consumes 2–3 kg, significantly higher than traditional internal combustion engine vehicles.

Estimation of neodymium iron boron demand for new energy vehicles - Hu'an Securities

From the supply-demand perspective, according to Argus data, China accounts for 89% of global neodymium iron boron magnetic material production, while overseas automotive terminal rare earth demand accounts for 60% of the global total—indicating that the development of new energy vehicles overseas cannot accept the absence of China's rare earth magnetic materials.

Application of neodymium iron boron magnetic materials in new energy vehicles - Jinli Yongjin

It is worth noting that the dissatisfaction of the Trump administration with China's rare earth control policies is largely due to the obvious rigid demand for rare earths in important US military equipment.

According to CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) data, an F-35 fighter jet contains over 900 pounds of rare earth elements, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer (DDG-51) requires 5,200 pounds of rare earths, and a Virginia-class nuclear submarine uses even more, reaching approximately 9,200 pounds.

China's rare earth control may affect the production and maintenance of US F-35 fighters - Business Insider

In emerging technology fields such as humanoid robotics, where China and the US are competing, there is also a strong demand for rare earth materials.

Public records show that a single humanoid robot typically requires more than 40 servo motors, each motor needing 50–100 grams of neodymium iron boron material, with a total usage of up to 2–4 kilograms.

Motor applications in humanoid robots - Jiangnan Yifan

For example, a single Tesla humanoid robot "Optimus" requires about 3.5 kilograms of high-performance neodymium iron boron, which is 1.75 times the amount used in a new energy vehicle.

Tesla humanoid robot joint structure - Guangfa Securities

Moreover, Musk stated on April 22 that the production of his humanoid robots has been affected by China's restrictions on the export of rare earth magnets. To address this, he mentioned that Tesla is actively applying for export permits for China's rare earth permanent magnet materials.

According to the annual report of Jinli Yongjin, a leading company in high-performance neodymium iron boron magnetic materials, global consumption of rare earth permanent magnets for humanoid robots will surge at an annual compound growth rate of 162.2% from 2023 to 2028, exceeding 2,887.5 tons in 2028.

In addition, rare earths are also crucial raw materials in semiconductors, communication equipment, wind power, low-altitude aircraft, variable frequency air conditioners, and industrial robots.

To put it simply: whoever controls the supply of rare earth materials holds greater dominance in the key paths of future technology.

And today, this key to the future is firmly in China's hands.

China Wants to Take Control of Its Own Destiny

In the wave of global green transformation and intelligent revolution, rare earths are no longer just an ordinary resource but a strategic lifeline vital to future industrial competitiveness.

China's decision to initiate rare earth export controls at this moment is not to create confrontation but a necessary response to actively safeguard its own interests in an increasingly unequal international economic and trade environment.

French President Emmanuel Macron recently told the Financial Times in an interview, "We don't want our lives to be changed every day by someone's decisions, telling us what is allowed and what is not."

This reflects a desire for "autonomy," a common sentiment among many countries in today's multipolar global order.

On the other side, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, put it more succinctly: "China is a potential rival... but what I really worry about is ourselves."

Although he did not directly mention the US government, his words under the shadow of Trump's constantly fluctuating policies reveal the growing anxiety among many countries regarding uncertainty.

China does not intend to change anyone's fate, but it will not accept anyone arbitrarily changing its own fate. From resources to industries, China has only one purpose—to take control of its own destiny.

This article is an exclusive contribution from the Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7512641747835486757/

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