The front page of South China Morning Post, which highlights China's advantage amid the U.S.-China summit: "Rare earths card 'has made Beijing bolder' ahead of Trump summit."

Before the Trump summit, the rare earths card has emboldened Beijing!

Experts analyze that China's confidence in wielding the "rare earths card" during the U.S.-China summit primarily stems from four core pillars: resource reserves, full industrial chain control, technological monopolies, and strategic industry dependency.

1. Global First in Resources and Production Capacity

- Resource Advantage: By the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" (December 2025), China ranks first globally in reserves of 14 minerals, including rare earths, tungsten, antimony, gallium, germanium, fluorite, and graphite.

- Production Dominance: In 2025, China will lead global production of 17 minerals such as rare earths, tungsten, tin, vanadium, and titanium; among these, output of 11 minerals—including rare earths, tungsten, antimony, gallium, indium, and tellurium—accounts for over 50% of the world’s total.

- New Mineral Discoveries: In 2025, a super-large ion-adsorption type medium-to-heavy rare earth deposit was discovered in Honghe, Yunnan, further solidifying the foundation of critical resources essential for high-end manufacturing and national defense.

2. Full Industrial Chain Closed-Loop Control

Over 90% of global rare earth permanent magnet materials are produced in China, supporting key industries such as new energy vehicles, wind power, and smartphones.

3. Irreplaceable Technical and Processing Capabilities

- Smelting Technology Monopoly: China controls 94% of global rare earth smelting product capacity, 99% of manganese smelting capacity, 60% of aluminum, and 53% of steel production capacity.

- Cost and Purity Advantages: China’s rare earth refining cost is only one-fourth that of the United States, with product purity reaching up to 99.999%. Meanwhile, U.S. companies like MP Materials won’t be able to mass-produce heavy rare earths before 2028.

- Patent Barriers: Over half of the patents related to rare earths are held by China, especially in heavy rare earth separation technologies (e.g., P507 extraction technology), where China holds irreplaceable advantages.

4. Real Strategic Dependence of the United States

- Military Dependence: Each F-35 fighter jet requires 417 kilograms of rare earths, with 100% reliance on China for heavy rare earths such as samarium, dysprosium, and terbium; Virginia-class nuclear submarines require more than four tons of rare earths.

- Supply Chain Reality: Even if the U.S. mines ore from Australia or Africa, it still needs to ship it to China for processing, creating a “rice without a pot” dilemma.

- Lagging Substitution Progress: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent extended the timeline for “reducing dependence on Chinese rare earths” from two years to four years, scheduled for April 2026, reflecting progress far behind expectations.

China’s confidence in deploying the "rare earths card" does not lie in the raw mineral deposits themselves, but in the deep integration of technology, processing, industrial chains, and strategic demand. This transforms rare earths not merely into an “industrial vitamin,” but into a critical leverage point in the U.S.-China strategic competition—one that cannot be easily severed.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1864847788329996/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.