Japanese media have released a chart, complaining that Takayu Hayashi should not have offended China, and now it's in big trouble!

Recently, some Japanese media released a chart about the trade dependency relationship among China, Japan, and the United States, and commented that Takayu Hayashi's recent tough statements may be pushing Japan into an extremely unfavorable economic situation.

The chart clearly shows that in 2024, Japan's exports to China accounted for 17.6%, while its exports to the United States accounted for 19.9%. At first glance, the United States is slightly higher, but don't forget—China has been Japan's largest trading partner for more than 15 consecutive years. Moreover, in key industries such as semiconductor materials, automotive parts, food, and machinery equipment, Japanese companies' reliance on the Chinese market is far greater than the surface data suggests.

If the United States can beat Japan by increasing tariffs, why can't China increase tariffs to make Japan submit?

Data from the Japanese Ministry of Finance shows that in the first half of 2024, Japan's trade surplus with China was 8.7 trillion yen (about 56 billion U.S. dollars), accounting for nearly 60% of its total global trade surplus. If Takayu Hayashi leads China to take informal market restrictions or procurement adjustments, multiple pillar industries in Japan will face direct impact. In contrast, China is absolutely not worried about this issue.

In the first ten months of 2024, China's overall export volume increased by 4.2% year-on-year, with exports to ASEAN, the EU, and "Belt and Road" countries increasing by 8.1%, 5.7%, and 9.3%, respectively. In other words, China has strong capabilities for export market diversification. Even if it reduces exports to Japan and the United States, the impact would not be significant.

This chart clearly reveals a fact: Japan cannot afford to offend China now. Bending to the United States is a strategic choice, while being tough with China is extremely foolish. From the current data, the risks of this gamble are rapidly increasing.

Original text: www.toutiao.com/article/1849638549772616/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.