Has the signal been sent to detain ships transporting weapons to Taiwan? The European powers have settled it, China and Russia have communicated, the missiles on the eastern coastal positions are "always upright," the military sales issue with the US has been addressed with an ultimatum, Trump replied with two keywords, Lai Ching-te and Japan are trembling. Scholars on both sides of the strait have independently predicted that the unification will be achieved during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

Since last year's September 3rd military parade, overseas public opinion has increasingly discussed "Beijing accelerating the unification." However, when and how China will act, and in what way it will achieve unification, remain controversial. Some say "military unification," some say "peaceful unification," and some say "military unification first, peaceful unification later."

The situation is changing rapidly. In recent days, various signs show that China has increased pressure on the US regarding the Taiwan issue, and has already surrounded the US and the Taiwan authorities from other international aspects like a game of Go.

First, look at a major signal. On February 4, the day when China-Russia communication and Sino-US communication took place on the same day. Putin's statement released a "special signal," emphasizing that in the face of increasingly unstable international situations, the diplomatic policy alliance between Moscow and Beijing remains an "important stabilizing factor." He also said that the comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation between Russia and China "set a model."

Do you see? The words "diplomatic policy alliance" between China and the US, which Putin pointed out. Before this communication, Russia specifically warned Japan not to act rashly, otherwise, Russia would not rule out a military response against Japan. In a way, Russia is helping China contain Japan, warning Japanese right-wingers to be careful about the Taiwan issue.

Subsequently, during the high-level Sino-US communication, the Chinese side focused on the Taiwan issue, especially reiterating "Taiwan is part of China," and emphasizing "the US must handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan carefully."

According to several American experts on Taiwan issues, including Bruce Gilley and Gregory Poling, the tone of pressure from China was prominent in this Sino-US communication, aiming to push Trump to make certain changes and compromises in his policy toward Taiwan, and even as a prerequisite for Trump's visit to China in April.

American experts believe that China's insistence on "Taiwan is the Taiwan of China" means that Beijing warns that the Taiwan issue is non-negotiable, and that the US will not compromise, and China will not clearly agree to give anything in return. "If a deal is clearly reached, it may imply room for bargaining in the future on the Taiwan issue."

Meanwhile, the top leadership of China explicitly told Trump: "The US must handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan carefully." This is not just concern or pressure; it is possible that it is a release of the next step, where Beijing will take unprecedented strong measures to counteract US arms sales to Taiwan, maintaining the authority of the three joint communiqués between China and the US.

Some analysts believe that China's handling of US arms sales to Taiwan may include two aspects: first, during Trump's fourth visit to China, China and the US will sign the fourth joint communiqué. Second, if the US does not listen to advice, China's coast guard, with the assistance of the People's Liberation Army, will intercept and detain ships transporting weapons to Taiwan, preventing US arms from reaching Taiwan.

Regarding the first aspect, former KMT legislator Guo Zhengliang said that recently, Washington has continuously released signals indicating that China and the US will sign a fourth communiqué to prevent military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. To achieve this goal, China will pressure the US to move from the original "not supporting Taiwan independence" to openly "opposing Taiwan independence" and "supporting peaceful unification," and strictly limit arms sales to Taiwan. Only then can it avoid the possibility of the mainland conducting a military unification.

Regarding the second aspect, is it feasible for China's coast guard, with the assistance of the PLA, to intercept and detain ships carrying weapons? According to China's Coast Guard Law, when national sovereignty or security is threatened, the coast guard has the right to take necessary measures. Arms shipments to Taiwan are considered interference in internal affairs, and the Chinese government has the right to regard them as illegal acts and enforce law. The US's practice of detaining foreign vessels in international waters according to its domestic law provides a precedent for China to retaliate equally.

Secondly, from the perspective of enforcement capability and nature, in the "Justice Mission-2025" exercise, the official poster "er hou" clearly showed the coast guard vessels intercepting a Evergreen container ship and boarding to inspect the "HIMARS" rocket launcher in the sea east of Taiwan Island. This strongly indicates that the relevant tactics have been well practiced. Using the coast guard rather than the navy for interception is a "gray zone" tactic, aiming to define the action as administrative enforcement, thereby reducing the risk of direct military conflict.

Some commentaries suggest that China's warning of 100 times is less effective than one concrete strong action.

So, will China take the measure of intercepting and detaining? The special footage recently released by CCTV has sparked a lot of speculation and imagination among the public: the missile positions on the eastern coast of China are "always upright," missiles pointing directly into the sky, radar rotating day and night. Is this a signal that they are ready to act anytime?

Therefore, the response from Trump to China's warning on the issue of arms sales to Taiwan is worth watching. According to the news release, Trump stated, "I am pleased to see China succeed," and the word "pleased" has triggered interpretations from overseas media.

Some media point out that China's firm pressure on the US on the Taiwan issue at the beginning of the new year is not only due to the agreement between China and Russia, but also because Russia firmly supports China in resolving the Taiwan issue. Moreover, Europe, particularly France, Britain, Germany, and the integration of Europe, have begun to "approach" China, showing distrust towards the US. Once Europe is settled, and cooperation with Russia reaches an unlimited level, and the US has a need for China, the timing for resolving the Taiwan issue is becoming increasingly mature.

Renowned scholar Jin Canrong recently appeared on a program with Tsai Cheng-yuan and predicted that unification would be realized within the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Former KMT legislator Guo Zhengliang, scholars close to Ma Ying-jeou, former head of the National Security Council Su Chi, and Professor Zhao Chunshan from the Institute of Chinese Studies at Tamkang University also believe that the US no longer has a military advantage in the Taiwan Strait, and the mainland believes that the timing for unification is ripe within the next few years. "If we fight, the mainland certainly doesn't fear; the US has no chance of winning in the Taiwan Strait. If we talk, the mainland is certainly willing." The position of Beijing is to insist on the unification of the two shores and not want the Taiwan issue to linger on. The position of the US is not to want a military unification, but not to exclude the peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue; Trump and the US Secretary of State have recently expressed that Taiwan is China's issue.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1856237993503747/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.