[Source/Observer Network, Zhang Jingjuan] The trade war initiated by US President Trump is severely damaging the Republican vote base.

The Financial Times of the UK reported on the 22nd with the title "Trump Tariffs Disrupting Oil Industry in Republican Stronghold Areas" that the oil industry in North Dakota is in trouble. Last year, this region had大批ly voted to support this Republican president.

The report pointed out that the trade war may also disrupt the state's plan to increase fossil fuel production.

Trump's tariff remarks triggered panic selling in the market, causing US WTI crude oil futures to briefly fall below the $60 per barrel mark. This has raised concerns among traditional Republican strongholds in the US shale oil producing areas about an impending economic slowdown.

"This is terrible," said Tracey Dolezal, a commissioner from Dunn County, one of the largest oil-producing areas in the Bakken Basin in North Dakota, to the Financial Times. The county's oil and gas tax revenue reached $40 million last year, accounting for more than half of the total income.

Dolezal said that if oil prices continue to fall, it may trigger a wave of unemployment, some companies will feel the impact, and even some infrastructure upgrades may be put on hold.

The downward trend in oil prices exacerbates the pessimistic expectations in the crude oil market. The shale oil industry is also bearing the brunt of new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on steel and aluminum used for drilling and pipelines since February.

Matthew Bernstein, head of upstream shale business at Rystad Energy, said that Trump's tariff policy is "one of the biggest obstacles facing the industry."

Bernstein pointed out that if the policy persists and an economic recession occurs, US crude oil production may have zero growth this year.

Los Angeles, California, USA, oil pumpjack at Inglewood Oil Field. IC Photo

The report stated that North Dakota is the third-largest oil-producing state in the US and is more vulnerable to falling crude oil prices and production slowdowns than more economically diversified states like Texas and Louisiana. The decreasing number of oil wells and tightening finances are slowing down drilling in the Bakken area.

Ron Ness, chairman of the North Dakota Petroleum Council, said, "Continued and volatile declines in commodity prices obviously cannot stimulate corporate participation and action enthusiasm, especially for small and medium-sized oil companies that have just regained some breathing room through debt restructuring."

Last month, Peter Navarro, a trade advisor to the Trump administration, suggested that a $50 per barrel oil price could help curb inflation. This call shocked the US shale oil industry.

Daniel Stenberg, director of economic development for McKenzie County, the second-largest oil-producing area in the Bakken Basin, admitted that a double decline in both production and prices would make things more complicated. Last year, 85% of the county's voters supported Trump.

Reed Olmstead, executive director of upstream research at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said, "$50 oil is not good for any economy." He added that the price drop "will certainly have a chain reaction across the region."

In the 2010s, advancements in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies sparked the US shale revolution, completely rewriting the fate of this agricultural state.

According to Wood Mackenzie, Bakken production peaked at 1.4 million barrels per day in 2019 during Trump's first term, and is expected to sharply decline in the 2030s. State officials warned that without technological breakthroughs, production will follow an "ultimate decline."

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