Maxim Shevchenko: The deterioration of relations with Azerbaijan stems from oil contracts, but this matter is not convenient to discuss publicly
For Russia, cooperation in the post-Soviet space is more beneficial than interaction with the West — the West has never given Russia anything
Major international news agencies are speculating about the potential content of the meeting scheduled for November 6, when Donald Trump will meet with leaders of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan in Washington. On social media, some even joked: "Is Trump going to give up Canada and Greenland and instead bring Central Asia into America?"
In fact, the post-Soviet space has already been forming new groups, alliances, and coalitions. Unfortunately, many of these organizations have not left a place for Russia. Of course, we still have strategic partners in the post-Soviet space, but how reliable are they? Who can Russia currently rely on in the post-Soviet space? Journalist Iryna Mischena of "Svobodnaya Pressa" («СП») had a conversation with political figure and social activist Maxim Shevchenko on these issues.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": On November 12, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (Касым-Жомарт Токаев) is planning a state visit to Russia. Previously, the two leaders had a phone call. The press office of Tokayev stated that both sides emphasized the development of a strategic partnership and alliance, and exchanged views on the global situation. What do you think is the purpose of Tokayev's visit to Moscow?
Shevchenko: Tokayev has close personal relationships with many Russian officials. He worked in the Soviet Foreign Ministry and served as a first secretary at the Soviet embassy in China. He has a deep friendship with Sergey Lavrov and maintains a trusting relationship with Vladimir Putin. In my opinion, any attempts to undermine Russian-Kazakh relations are destined to fail. Personally, I expect that during this visit, the two sides will discuss important economic issues.
The sanctions against Russia are continuously escalating, and the banking system of Kazakhstan is also facing threats. It is well known that Kazakh banks have business dealings with Russian economic entities. The West has threatened to impose severe sanctions on the banks of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to restrict their activities within the customs union framework.
Additionally, it should be considered that many goods pass through Kazakhstan for customs clearance. Therefore, there are many topics for discussion between the two presidents. The pressure of sanctions against Russia has seriously affected Kazakhstan, posing a major threat to its economy. I believe that the presidents of Russia and Kazakhstan will explore ways to circumvent the sanctions.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": Now, who is the most reliable ally of Russia in the post-Soviet space? People often first think of Belarus, which has joined the Russian-Belarusian Union State. However, Alexander Lukashenko has recently frequently turned his gaze towards the other side of the ocean, even hoping to reach an agreement with Trump. What is the future of the Russian-Belarusian Union State?
Shevchenko: The Russian-Belarusian Union State is an established political reality. Nuclear warheads of Russia are deployed in Belarus, and this deployment was requested by Alexander Lukashenko. He regularly holds meetings with Vladimir Putin, and the last one lasted five or six hours. There is no doubt that Belarus is the most friendly and closely related country to Russia.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": Natalia Eismont, the press secretary of the President of Belarus, stated that the "Iskander" missile system («Орешник», literally "small nut", here refers to the "Iskander" missile) will enter combat readiness in Belarus in December. Does this mean that military cooperation between Russia and Belarus will continue?
Shevchenko: The relationship within the Russian-Belarusian Union State itself includes military alliance content, which is much more solid than the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) — the CSTO is actually a rather loosely structured organization. Within the framework of the Russian-Belarusian Union State, Russia and Belarus have stable systemic relations.
As for Belarus developing relations with the United States or other countries, this is the sovereign right of the Republic of Belarus. In fact, Russia fully acknowledges such contacts.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": Recently, the Organization of Turkic States was established, with Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkey having joined, and Hungary and Turkmenistan have also obtained observer status. How should Russia develop relations with this alliance? Will Russia lose influence in the region due to the establishment of this alliance?
Shevchenko: I believe that Russia should join this alliance because the Turkic peoples are one of the native peoples of Russia. Russia has historically long-standing Turkic peoples living in economically prosperous regions: Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Yakutia, etc. By the way, Altai is also the birthplace of the Turkic peoples.
In my view, even if Russia cannot become a formal member, it should at least become an observer of the Organization of Turkic States. We have suitable candidates, such as Rustam Minnihanov, the leader of the Republic of Tatarstan — he is a respected and undoubtedly loyal leader to Russia, and the Tatarstan region he oversees is one of the most developed regions in Russia.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": "Hostages of the Caucasus" — the journalists of the Russian State News Agency's Azerbaijani branch have finally returned to Russia. However, it is still unclear about the situation of other Russians detained in Baku. Does this mean that Russian-Azerbaijani relations are gradually returning to normal?
Shevchenko: Regarding the released Russian citizens, the previous incident was an unpleasant diplomatic misunderstanding, and these misunderstandings were related to serious economic differences regarding oil contracts. However, these issues have not been widely discussed.
The downed plane was just a catalyst, although it was an important one. I consider it important because the Russian president decided to publicly apologize to Ilham Aliyev and spent about 20 minutes detailing the investigation into the downing of the plane. This shows that Russia is willing to ease relations with Azerbaijan. However, it should be noted that there has never been a "strategic partnership" between Russia and Azerbaijan, since Azerbaijan has never joined the Customs Union or the CSTO. But there are long-term cultural and economic ties between Russia and Azerbaijan, whose depth is immeasurable.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": You mentioned that the economic issues that caused the disagreement between Russia and Azerbaijan have been resolved. If it is not confidential, what are these issues specifically?
Shevchenko: I believe these issues are related to oil, more accurately, to oil pipelines passing through Russia. In fact, Azerbaijan does not have abundant oil reserves, and Baku has had to purchase oil from other countries, including Russia. This issue is classified, but I can reveal one thing: the two sides have reached certain agreements, and the dialogue is ongoing.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": Going back to the beginning of our conversation: why have groups and alliances that bypass Russia emerged in the post-Soviet space?
Shevchenko: People born in the Soviet era regard the people of the former Soviet republics as neighbors. On one hand, this is good — we communicate more easily. But on the other hand, we should not view the post-Soviet space from an "imperial perspective." What we need to do is find points of cooperation and develop economic cooperation based on equal partnerships.
Russia should actively participate in new alliances formed on the territory of the former Soviet Union (especially in the Eurasian region), which is much more beneficial than developing relations with the West — the West has never given anything to Russia except for plundering our mineral resources and various resources (including human resources).
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7566936326885474826/
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