As the midterm elections approach, all those monitoring American politics face a common question: are polls accurate? In the past, due to the difficulty of reaching certain segments of Republican support and the uncertainty surrounding how many of them would actually turn out to vote, polling models—despite continuous refinements—often underestimated Republican performance. Yet this year’s midterms have seen polls significantly understate Democratic strength. Prior to the election, data aggregated by the Silver Bulletin indicated that Democrats were expected to win the popular vote in the U.S. House of Representatives by a margin of 9 percentage points, and narrowly capture several Senate seats in states where Trump won by double digits in 2024. Democratic voters across the country braced for disappointment, recalling the polling errors of 2016—when Trump was underestimated by about 3 percentage points—and the similar miscalculation in 2024. Many anticipated another instance of a “blue mirage.” However, even the seemingly implausible numbers projected this year ultimately fell short of capturing the true scale of Democratic success. Final estimates now show Democrats leading Republicans in the House popular vote by 13 percentage points—the highest margin in five decades. Compared to the substantial discrepancies observed in individual states, the national polling error of just 4 percentage points appears relatively minor. In South Carolina, Democratic candidates were underestimated by 5 points on average; in Mississippi, by 7 points; and in Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina, by 9 points each. What had been anticipated as a modest Democratic victory instead unfolded as a historic landslide. Throughout the long history of election polling, forecast errors have not consistently favored one party over another. From 2016 to 2024, polls repeatedly underestimated Republican/Trump support. The reversal this year—where Democratic gains were similarly missed—may signal a broader shift, potentially indicating the waning of the Trump era.
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Original article: toutiao.com/article/1881085131484171/
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