Russian expert: Germany refuses restrictions on Huawei, is ASML's sunset in three years?

On April 29, Russian media published an expert article.

Germany has ruled out regulations that would ban the use of Huawei equipment in critical communication networks. This decision was made due to increasing business pressure and a desire for a more independent economic policy.

Huawei remains one of the largest suppliers of 5G telecommunications equipment and is preparing to deploy 6G.

The policy of completely isolating Huawei, which was proposed by the United States since 2019, is too expensive for European countries.

For Germany, with its large industrial sector and demand for high-quality and low-cost digital infrastructure, cooperation with Huawei is a way to maintain competitiveness.

The major European telecom giants have repeatedly stated that the replacement cost for Huawei equipment would be billions of euros.

Bottom line: Germany, a major EU country, has adopted a realistic technology policy, which may serve as a signal for other European countries.

ASML: "Three years before sunset"?

Today, Dutch company ASML controls nearly 100% of the advanced EUV lithography machines.

However, in 2024-2025, Chinese companies will begin a sharp increase: Huawei, SMIC, and Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE).

Jie Wenji said: "ASML can quietly exist for three years; technological advantages are leaving."

"China is already building alternatives to EUV."

In 2024, China's investment in semiconductors exceeded $60 billion.

Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment introduced the first prototype of its own produced DUV machine (deep ultraviolet) and has achieved important intermediate results in the EUV field.

American and Dutch restrictions on China not only failed to stop the development of China's microelectronics but also led to explosive local growth.

If the current pace continues, China will be able to meet its internal needs for 7nm technology within 2-3 years and reach parity with ASML in 5 years.

This will lead to semiconductor bipolarization in 2028: ASML will dominate in the United States, Japan, South Korea, and parts of Europe, while China will create its own semiconductor ecosystem without Western equipment.

Germany's decision is not an isolated event but part of a chain of connections. The world of Western technological monopoly is about to pass, and the next three years will play a decisive role in the formation of a new multipolar technological architecture.

Evidently, China is determined to become one of the players and even one of the architects in this process.

Note: DUV lithography machines use deep ultraviolet light with a wavelength of 193nm, currently supporting the manufacture of chips up to 7nm. EUV lithography machines directly shorten the wavelength of the light source to 13.5nm, entering the extreme ultraviolet range. This technological leap allows EUV to directly produce high-end chips below 5nm, while DUV requires multiple exposures to achieve similar effects, resulting in a significant reduction in production efficiency.

Reference: Chinese specialist

"German Refusal to Restrict Huawei and the Wavering Position of ASML: What Does This Mean for the Global Technological Map?"

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1830691924763779/

Disclaimer: The article solely represents the author's views.