[Source/Author of Observer Network Column]

"There were many smart people and experts present, all skilled at card counting and calculating odds. What Elon did was to bet everything on each hand, lose it all, buy more chips, and double down. After losing many hands, he bet everything again and won. Then he said, 'Okay, that's enough, I'm done.'"

Max Levchin, the "second-in-command" of the PayPal mafia, once recalled Musk's initial experience at the poker table in this way.

Years later, as a political "novice," Musk entered the "swamp" of Washington with the same style, sparking a沸沸扬扬DOGE ("Department of Government Efficiency") storm, which, with its nearly one热搜-per-day frequency, has made many readers well acquainted with his actions.

However, just as DOGE was just getting started, Musk recently brought up its "post-DOGE" direction, and the outside world generally interpreted it as a tragic failure of a "hundred-day reform."

But is the reality really so?

Photo illustration: AP

The Mystery of SGE

It must first be pointed out that the so-called "Elon Musk's resignation" is a misinterpretation of the basic facts.

Musk stated that he plans to end his current position by the end of May and expressed confidence in achieving the goal of reducing the federal deficit by one trillion dollars within the 130-day period from January 20th until his departure.

This deadline was not arbitrarily set by Musk but is clearly defined by the nature of his position as a Special Government Employee (SGE).

Since 1962, the U.S. Congress has approved the establishment of the SGE category of federal government positions to allow administrative agencies to flexibly utilize external experts from the private sector.

Entering through the SGE route not only exempts one from the lengthy and complex political nomination confirmation process but also allows special government employees to be exempt from the conflict-of-interest provisions of the Federal Acquisition Regulation, meaning federal government contracts can be awarded to organizations controlled by SGEs.

Given all these benefits of being unrestrained, Congress naturally imposed safeguards to prevent abuse.

According to legal regulations, during any continuous 365-day period, an SGE can only be retained, designated, appointed, or employed by the government for "no more than 130 days."

Now you should understand what Musk is talking about.

From former "daughter" of Hillary Clinton and daughter-in-law of George Soros, Huma Abedin, to today's "one-character equal sign king" Musk, evidently no one has attempted to break the rules of the SGE position.

Of course, Musk's statement did indeed announce his exact date of "laying down his cards and leaving."

However, when Musk said, "Okay, that's enough, I'm done," the outcome of the game was not necessarily him losing all his chips.

The real impact of the DOGE "hundred-day reform" will likely unfold gradually after Musk departs.

The Invisible People "Downstairs"

To understand this, let us start with a TV series.

In the classic series "Downton Abbey," which depicts the rise and fall of a noble family from before World War I to after World War II, the members of the noble family upstairs are obviously the protagonists of history books. However, simultaneously, the large group of servants downstairs is also portrayed in detail, presenting a complex web of subtle interactions among various individuals. These interactions shape the environment, profoundly influencing the "masters" upstairs, though in ways that family members can only vaguely perceive.

Without considering the influence of "downstairs," the story of Downton Abbey would undoubtedly be incomplete and even one-sided.

Just like Downton Abbey, the "swamp" of Washington is no different.

Behind the headlining figures' turnover every two to four years, which draws global media attention and involves dozens of top figures, what remains constant in Washington is the tens of thousands of civil servants of administrative institutions, congressional assistants, professional lobbyists, lawyers, think tank experts, and scholars from universities like Georgetown and Johns Hopkins.

Although the big shots have the power to make decisions, the specific content they promote or oppose is largely controlled by the nameless "people downstairs." These tens of thousands of invisible "people downstairs" also have their own stances, judgments, habits, preferences, and vested interests. Their massive microscopic interactions, which leave few traces, can highly effectively translate into voluminous reports and bills, ultimately forming the intangible yet clearly perceptible "Deep State."

Whether it's the sensational conspiracy theories of the alt-right community or the call to "drain the swamp," at least they reflect the disappointment and anger of MAGA movement participants towards this vast collective. However, the outcome of the Capitol Hill riot and its aftermath have already proven that there is no swift solution to severing this complex collective, akin to the Gordian Knot.

Placing Musk's DOGE storm in such a context may help one truly understand its deeper implications.

In the view of the Mindful Observation Institute, the true goal of the DOGE "hundred-day reform" was never a radical overhaul but a thorough "health check-up" of major federal institutions. The formulation and implementation of subsequent "treatment" plans will still be carried out by Trump's core team.

Regarding this point, Trump's response was quite thought-provoking:

"I can say this: many of those who worked with DOGE were heads of various institutions - they learned a lot. I think some of them may try to keep DOGE personnel around them after DOGE is dissolved."

Rooting in Washington

Through the forced "scanning" of federal institutions, covering funding flows, personnel rosters, and various business data, DOGE has laid a solid foundation for unraveling knots in the future.

However, these tasks requiring meticulousness, patience, and delicate interpersonal skills have clearly lost their appeal for Musk, who loves taking on new risks.

However, Trump's return to Washington naturally has more suitable successors to take over this work.

Besides the members of the DOGE team who may enter various federal agencies mentioned earlier, Eric Schmidt and Peter Thiel, among other Silicon Valley right-wing and left-wing leaders, have already established their stable "bases" in Washington.

Unlike Musk, who does not fully grasp the true meaning of risk, Schmidt and Thiel are renowned for their precise risk control. Their newly founded think tanks such as SCSP and Palantir Funds, along with their financial assaults on traditional academic strongholds represented by the Schmidt Research Project at Yale University and the CSET Center at Georgetown University, have effectively woven a stable source of young talent and policy perspectives continuously feeding into the "downstairs" of Washington.

Thiel and Schmidt, though seemingly belonging to the right and left wings respectively, have cooperated closely in recent years, from founding the American Frontier Fund to hosting AI EXPO events.

When Trump's loyal cabinet members can precisely identify and promote talents in their respective domains, when the discourse power over emerging topics like artificial intelligence is quietly transferred to the intellectual networks built by West Coast benefactors, and when the "reservoir" effectively carrying后备elites between the ruling and opposition parties is constructed, MAGA will naturally shed its image of being adrift and truly take root in Washington.

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