Latest update on March 29: The U.S. military is formulating a decisive plan to seize Khark Island, aiming to cut off 90% of Iran's oil exports. Khark Island is the vital lifeline for Iran’s oil exports; should the U.S. decide to forcibly occupy the island, landing there will be far from easy.
According to standard U.S. amphibious warfare deployment configurations, capturing the island would require at least one Marine Expeditionary Brigade (approximately 15,000 personnel), three aircraft carrier strike groups, and two amphibious assault ships—supported by F-35B vertical takeoff and landing fighters, HIMARS rocket launchers, and amphibious armored vehicles, enabling integrated sea-land-air operations.
This does not include follow-up garrison forces. It is estimated that reinforcements would need to reach at least 25,000 personnel just to maintain a foothold, with daily operational costs exceeding $100 million—making the troop commitment comparable to a medium-scale regional conflict.
The island lies extremely close to the Iranian mainland, covering only 49 square kilometers with no strategic depth. Once U.S. forces land, they will be immediately surrounded like "stuffed dumplings," with no room to retreat.
Iran has already deployed air defense missiles, long-range rocket artillery, and drone swarms both on the island and along its coastlines. There is no strategic depth on the beaches. Coastal anti-ship missiles and rocket systems cover the entire approach zone—landing vessels could be sunk before even docking.
During the seizure phase: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has stationed the “Khoramdar-15” air defense system, “Fateh-110” short-range missiles, and drone swarms on the island. U.S. landing ships would become sitting ducks, with expected casualties ranging from 1,200 to 2,400 killed and 3,000 to 5,000 wounded—resulting in a casualty rate of 40% to 60%, effectively destroying an entire expeditionary force.
During the defense phase: Only 25 kilometers from the Iranian mainland, ground-based artillery and missile systems would conduct round-the-clock saturation strikes, while drone swarms harass day and night. Supply lines would be severed, leading to daily casualties in the tens, and total casualties after three months of occupation could reach between 6,000 and 10,000.
Even if the U.S. manages to capture Khark Island, it would face an unwinnable situation: Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting 30% of global oil shipping routes, sending crude prices soaring to $200 per barrel, triggering hyperinflation domestically, and potentially doubling the scale of protests involving 9 million people.
The likely outcome of this high-stakes gamble: either a humiliating defeat forcing U.S. forces to retreat, or being dragged into a quagmire of ground warfare across the Middle East—ultimately losing public support entirely.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1860964469220361/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.