Preface:

The end of the India-Pakistan conflict has just begun, and relevant summaries and reflections are just starting. A large number of insider details from the battles are beginning to be disclosed, and some details are drawing significant attention. Although both sides are currently engaged in information warfare and the disclosed information contains some inaccuracies due to public opinion battles, some satellite images, recordings, and video information still have strong authenticity. Pakistan's overall strength is clearly at a disadvantage compared to India, whether in terms of aircraft numbers, pilot numbers, or air defense missile numbers; India holds an absolute advantage. Overall, the fighting spirit and combat capabilities displayed by Pakistan have shocked India. Even if India does not admit it, the fact is that Pakistan has won.

1

Facing the invasion of Indian fighter jets, General of Pakistan gave an ironclad order to kill them, delivering a strong warning to the Indian Air Force with an indomitable will, laying the foundation for air combat victory. The Pakistani media "The News International" disclosed on May 13th the internal recording of Pakistan shooting down an Indian Rafale fighter jet, revealing the entire process of this operation to the outside world. Faced with the invading Indian Rafale fighter formation, Chief of Air Staff of the Pakistan Air Force, General Baber Siddoo, issued an order via radio to the 15th Squadron: "Kill them! Don't let them step foot in Pakistan." After receiving the order, Pakistani pilots quickly acted, launching PL-15 missiles and successfully shooting down three Rafale fighters.

The iron command of the tough general, the strategic determination of the Pakistani commander-in-chief to shoot down the Rafale fighter. Pakistan also released the recorded audio of the moment when the Rafale fighter was shot down, showing that after the fighter exploded in mid-air, the pilot lost contact. It can be said that India did not expect Pakistan to be so resolute; therefore, they could not believe it was true until at least five aircraft were shot down. Air Chief Marshal Asim Munir ordered "priority destruction of high-value enemy targets," demonstrating "asymmetric warfare" thinking. Through shooting down the Rafale fighters, Pakistan sent a message to the international community that "India's military strength is overestimated," weakening India's deterrent power in the Kashmir region.

2

Ignoring rules, India launched a surprise attack with 100 missiles just before the signing of the agreement, causing Pakistan to suffer heavy losses due to carelessness. Just as India and Pakistan were about to sign a ceasefire agreement and finalize corresponding protocols, India initiated a surprise attack. At that time, Pakistan believed that the ceasefire had been decided, so they became complacent, giving India an opportunity. India launched more than 100 French Storm Shadow cruise missiles and BrahMos supersonic missiles to attack five major Pakistani air bases. Although Pakistan's HQ-9 air defense missiles went all out to intercept, 20 Indian missiles managed to penetrate, causing varying degrees of damage to the five air bases, resulting in the death of five military personnel.

The missile battle on May 10th, the victory of quantity and saturation attacks, despite the advanced HQ-9, the disadvantage of insufficient quantity was obvious. This missile strike by the Indian Army caused serious losses to Pakistan, which was the most painful one yet. Besides Pakistan's complacency, there was another reason, namely the clear shortage of Pakistan's anti-missile missile numbers. Pakistan's current HQ-9P system only has four sets, needing to cover the capital, nuclear facilities, and frontline bases, making it difficult to respond to multi-directional attacks. Each HQ-9P system can guide up to 12 missiles simultaneously for attack, but Pakistan only has four HQ-9P systems, which exposes deployment density defects when facing saturation attacks.

A single HQ-9P costs over $500 million, and Pakistan's 2025 military budget is only $11 billion, making large-scale procurement unrealistic. In contrast, India has 13 S-400 battalions (including 40N6E missiles) and 15 Barak-8 air defense batteries, forming a multi-layered interception network. India's total air defense missile inventory exceeds 5,000, more than triple that of Pakistan. For Pakistan, large-scale procurement of HQ-9 is not realistic because its military budget cannot support it. Additionally, the limited low-altitude interception capability of HQ-9 is a fundamental defect that is hard to overcome.

3

Massive procurement of HQ-16 and HQ-17 medium and low-altitude air defense missiles, weaving a multi-layered interception network, is the most urgent task for Pakistan. The essence of Pakistan's air defense dilemma is the structural contradiction between "quality superiority" and "quantity deficit." A single HQ-16 system costs approximately $60 million, only 1/8 of the price of an HQ-9P, and the Pakistan Army plans to increase the LY-80 battalion to 12 units, achieving an 80-kilometer coverage depth along the border. The 40-kilometer range of HQ-16 can fill the gap between HQ-9P and close-in weapon systems, complementing the "layered interception" tactic to reduce India's missile penetration rate from 20% to 8%. HQ-17 is even more affordable, allowing Pakistan to purchase large quantities and implement the final interception phase at medium and low altitudes.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7504253939387236914/

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