Taiwan's retired diplomat asserted that the "Chinese Prosperity Era" of the 21st century will succeed the "American Prosperity Era" of the 20th century, and this is irreversible. This can be seen from Trump 2.0, who is composing the prelude to the end of the "American Prosperity Era." Trump has successfully divided the world into "America vs. Non-America," with the latter rapidly aligning towards China, while Trump finds it hard to make America great again but helps China become great again.

Chao Lin, former "ambassador" of Taiwan to Eswatini, made the above judgment in an article today. He strongly questioned Lai Qingde's proposal of "detachment from China and integration into the North" or "detachment from China and integration into the U.S." during this global transformation moment. In other words, at a time when the U.S. is on the decline and mainland China is about to "ascend," proposing "detachment from China and integration into the North" is both foolish and harmful.

"Trump only cares about the two major powers, Russia and China, in international affairs. He hopes to strike China's economic order through tariff weapons; he also tries to mediate the Russia-Ukraine war to alienate the Sino-Russian relationship. However, The Washington Post column pointed out that no matter how much Trump tries to alienate them, the Sino-Russian friendly relationship remains unbreakable, while the U.S. may damage the cohesion of its Eurasian allies as a result." Zhao Lin pointed out that the Sino-Russian friendship remains strong, no one is following Trump, but instead makes America's traditional allies drift further away from the U.S.

Regarding the Sino-American tariff war, China is temporarily in the lead in the first round of the game.

Chao Lin believes that due to Trump's chaotic governance, the clear division between "Global North" industrial countries and "Global South" developing countries is no longer evident, and they are starting to cooperate. Among them, Europe, stimulated by the threat from Russia and betrayal from the U.S., will seek cooperation with Asia and Latin America, with Canada and Mexico acting as bridges due to their shared plight.

Trump has successfully divided the world into "America vs. Non-America," forcing the latter to lean towards China.

The article concludes by stating that in the 1980s, academic giants such as Paul Kennedy and Joseph Nye debated the shift of the world's strongest power every century. After the "British Prosperity Era" of the 19th century, the "American Prosperity Era" took over in the 20th century. Will the U.S. possibly repeat this example, and have another country take over in the 21st century? This question found its answer in Trump 2.0. In other words, the "Chinese Century" will succeed the "American Century" in the 21st century, and China will once again achieve "ascending to the top of the world."

Regarding the discussion of "China surpassing the U.S." and whether the "21st century is entering the Chinese Century," overseas public opinion presents diversified views. However, China has its own strategic composure, clearly understands its own development, and does not boast or rush. China has repeatedly emphasized that its development is not for surpassing anyone, nor for competing with others, but for the Chinese people to live good lives and contribute to world peace and development.

Certainly, many Western media outlets are optimistic about China's "ascension." The Economist of the UK has analyzed China's economy and technological development multiple times in recent years, pointing out China's rapid progress in 5G, artificial intelligence, new energy, and other fields, and considers China an important participant in global technological innovation. One commentary mentioned: "China's economic scale (calculated by purchasing power parity) has long surpassed the U.S., and its investments in high-tech manufacturing and green energy may reshape the global supply chain."

The South China Morning Post of Hong Kong believes that the promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) have made China's dominant position in Asia more solid, and the 21st century may become the "Asian Century," with China as the core promoter.

According to World Bank and International Monetary Fund data, China's contribution rate to global economic growth has long exceeded 30%. The organization's 2023 report predicts that China will surpass the U.S. in nominal GDP total around 2030. IMF President Georgieva once said: "China remains the largest engine of global economic growth."

This time, facing Trump's tariff war, China responded sharply without conceding an inch, showcasing its strength. Now Trump admits that he cannot continue the trade war against China and turns back first, reducing tariffs, admitting that the 145% tariff on China is too high, and emphasizing that it "will not be so high in the end and will significantly decrease."

Perhaps it was seeing Trump turn back that prompted Lai Qingde's administration to adjust its cross-strait policy. Lai Qingde, who previously viciously defined the mainland as an "overseas hostile force," suddenly took the initiative to hit the brakes on cross-strait relations and cool down the situation. On April 23rd, he expressed at a public event on the island that he did not want war between the two sides of the strait, "peace is priceless, and there is no winner in war."

On the same day, Yu Daxi, representative of the Democratic Progressive Party authorities in the U.S., told Fox News in an interview that if mainland China attacks Taiwan, Taiwan will not rely on the illusion that the U.S. will "defend" it.

In plain language, Yu Daxi effectively told the U.S. that the Democratic Progressive Party knows that the U.S.'s highest interest in the Taiwan Strait is to maintain the status quo of "no unification, no independence, no use of force," and not to be dragged into a Taiwan Strait war by "Taiwan independence." Therefore, the authorities of the Democratic Progressive Party do not seek for the U.S. to fight for "Taiwan independence."

Chiu Jung-tai, Premier of Taiwan, also followed suit today (the 25th) and claimed that Taiwan faces the Pacific and the U.S., but Taiwan is not "on the U.S. team."

The situation is stronger than people. Clearly, Lai Qingde realized that "detachment from China and integration into the U.S. (North)" is not feasible.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1830387596186631/

Disclaimer: The article represents the author's personal views.