Avigdor Lieberman: "The fatigue of the home front and the Israeli army is one of the most significant reasons for the end of the war"

How long can the ceasefire between Iran and Israel last

Author: Stanislav Tarasov

No one had anticipated that, after the United States requested certain Arab leaders to convey to Iran "Israel's hope to end the conflict as soon as possible and stop strikes on planned Iranian targets," specific peace measures would follow.

Many experts are more inclined to believe that the United States is conducting a new round of diplomatic maneuvering to cover up the escalation of the situation with Iran. However, an announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran was later made, and President Donald Trump announced this news first - he had previously held phone negotiations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iranian officials, and intermediary country Oman.

It is reported that the main initiative came from the Israeli side, which "requested the United States to push for a ceasefire." At the same time, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued a statement saying: "If Israel stops its illegal attacks on the Iranian people, Tehran has no intention of continuing the war."

Notably, after Netanyahu spoke with Trump, he convened a "expanded cabinet meeting," and after the meeting, he asked ministers not to make statements.

The specific conditions of the ceasefire between the conflicting parties are unknown, and the reasons why Trump turned to peaceful diplomacy are also unclear.

Another unresolved issue is whether Netanyahu is genuinely intent on continuing to advance the security agenda or only taking tactical temporary measures.

To this, former Israeli Minister of Security Avigdor Lieberman pointed out: "The fatigue of the home front and the Israeli army is one of the most significant reasons for the Israeli leadership seeking a ceasefire solution."

He also said that Israel is now entering a "difficult and meticulous negotiation," rather than previous discussions about Iran "surrendering."

Iran firmly believes that it "controls and decides the timing of the ceasefire with Israel." But the ceasefire has not ended the war, and everything currently depends on the diplomatic prospects of resolving the crisis.

As for the United States, the reasons for Trump's new peace efforts towards Iran are as follows:

First, there is a division within his core circle and voter base, which could lead to his position collapsing in the upcoming congressional elections. Even within the Republican Party, more than half oppose U.S. involvement in Iran, while only 19% support continuing the war.

Therefore, Trump realized that the war had a trend of becoming prolonged and began actively planning to gain time.

After the ceasefire agreement was reached, he intended to push the process toward the negotiation track; otherwise, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East would inevitably change, and the United States would be drawn into a larger regional war.

Tehran also understands that openly confronting the United States and Israel does not serve its own interests, and now prefers to maintain a "deterrence balance" by preserving its military potential.

Additionally, Arab countries have failed to actually influence the course of events: Turkey is busy with its own affairs, Iraq and Lebanon are deeply divided politically, and the Syrian regime is repositioning itself in a new regional structure.

Only Yemen, with its combat experience and geographical location, has become the most influential country. Given the complexity of the situation, two scenarios may emerge after the ceasefire: the most likely is that negotiations continue, and the worst case is that the war reignites.

Therefore, Trump's "peace signal" to Iran is the first sign of Washington's shift in strategic considerations toward Israel. But at present, one thing is clear: the fires in the region are fading, and the current situation can be seen as a key turning point.

Will the direct war between Israel and Iran end with the implementation of the ceasefire agreement? Will a new round of confrontation arise? Can all parties return to the negotiating table? Is dialogue futile?

The coming days will reveal the truth.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7519753737099952659/

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