According to a report by Japan's Sankei News, on July 2, the Japanese Ministry of Defense announced that one PLA drone entered the Pacific Ocean on both the morning and afternoon of the same day, passing through the airspace between the Okinawa Islands and Taiwan Island.

Two PLA drones entered the Pacific Ocean on July 2

According to the diagram released by the Japanese side, one drone flew to the sea off Taitung and then returned along the same route; the other continued south, possibly "clockwise" around Taiwan and returning via the Bashi Channel. However, the Japanese side did not specify which drone arrived in the morning and which appeared in the afternoon. It is estimated that on the morning of July 3, the Taiwanese military will provide a "special identification" when releasing a statement about the PLA's circumnavigation of Taiwan.

It is worth noting that this is not the first time the PLA has interacted in this manner. Records show that on June 26, the Japanese side also confirmed that two PLA drones had entered the Western Pacific, with paths similar to those on July 2. The difference was that the previous drone circled Taiwan in a "counter-clockwise" direction, entering from the Bashi Channel, turning in the southeastern waters of Taiwan, and then heading north along the eastern coast of Taiwan.

In general, if the PLA's drones are to enter the Western Pacific from the northern direction of Taiwan, there are mainly two routes: one is to fly over the Miyako Strait and then head south; the other is similar to the situation on July 2, directly flying over the waters between the Okinawa Islands and Taiwan, then heading south along the areas of Yilan and Hualien. If the goal of the drones entering the Western Pacific is mainly the eastern part of Taiwan, naturally, flying over the waters between the Okinawa Islands and Taiwan is more convenient in terms of distance.

So, does this PLA drone's southern movement into the eastern waters of Taiwan have a special mission? From a military perspective, there are generally three main tasks: First, to conduct reconnaissance of the eastern coast of Taiwan and the eastern waters of Taiwan. Considering that the PLA's high-altitude drones are integrated for "reconnaissance and strike," it is not ruled out that they may simulate land and sea attacks during this process.

The PLA's drones primarily conduct reconnaissance missions to the east of Taiwan

Second, testing high-altitude satellite communication links. Previously, island military expert Zhang Yanting stated that after PLA aircraft entered the eastern waters of Taiwan, their communication with the command center behind was mainly through high-altitude satellites, and this would be the case during wartime as well. The frequent entry of drones into the eastern waters of Taiwan could be a continuation of testing satellite communication links, followed by improvements.

Third, considering that the PLA's ships and aircraft almost daily circle around Taiwan, during the process of drones flying around the eastern waters, they are also conducting deep integration operations with other ships and aircraft. Drones conducting reconnaissance in the eastern waters of Taiwan can transmit real-time dynamic information of the area to other ships and aircraft, while also receiving some combat instructions.

However, the Japanese "Sankei" news also focused on another issue: the helplessness of Japan facing the PLA's high-altitude drones. In the past, since the PLA's drones often flew over the Miyako Strait or the surrounding waters near the Okinawa Islands, Japan frequently dispatched fighter jets for monitoring. On June 27, the Japanese Cabinet revealed that it would allow the Self-Defense Forces to shoot down drones that violated Japanese airspace.

However, shooting down high-altitude long-range drones presents many challenges. First, such drones, like the PLA's "Yilong" series, typically fly at altitudes above 10 kilometers, requiring high-performance fighter jets or advanced air defense systems to effectively intercept. When the Japanese Ministry of Defense releases information about drones, it often uses "estimated" rather than attaching clear on-site photos, which indicates that they can only spot them, but it is very difficult to approach them.

Second, the PLA's drones have long endurance capabilities and flexible flight paths, making it difficult to accurately predict their trajectory, thus increasing the difficulty of interception.

The PLA's drones fly high, and the Japanese military have no way to deal with it

Third, the PLA's drones are equipped with electronic jamming devices, which may affect radar lock-on and missile guidance systems, further increasing the operational risks.

Fourth, the shot-down action also needs to consider the potential damage caused by falling debris to ground or maritime facilities, as well as the diplomatic consequences. Therefore, faced with the PLA's high-altitude drones, Japan can only "look up in frustration."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522677511550812698/

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