China's exports to the US fell by 33.1%, but the total national exports surged by 65.9% against the trend. After seven years of Sino-US trade war, China suddenly changed its strategy, and U.S. media exclaimed that behind the "negotiate without concession" approach is China having already opened a new trade battlefield.
In August, China's exports to the US dropped by 33.1% year-on-year, a figure that seems shocking, but during the same period, China's overall exports increased by 65.9%, and the total value of imports and exports also grew by 3.5%. Between one decrease and one increase, the Sino-US trade pattern is undergoing fundamental changes.
The Sino-US trade volume fell to 2.73 trillion yuan in the first eight months, down 13.5% year-on-year. However, China's trade with ASEAN grew by 9.7%, and with the EU by 4.3%. More notably, the total import and export volume with "Belt and Road" countries reached 15.3 trillion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year.
These data indicate that China is accelerating its efforts to reduce reliance on the US market, and its strategy for market diversification has yielded obvious results. ASEAN now accounts for 16.7% of China's foreign trade, and the EU for 13.1%, making these two economies China's largest trading partners.
The Wall Street Journal noted a significant change in China's trade negotiation strategy. Chinese representatives made almost no concessions during their visit to the US in late August, showing an unprecedentedly firm stance. U.S. media summarized this strategy as "negotiate without concession."
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen publicly expressed concern, stating that if the U.S. loses the tariff lawsuit, it would have to refund about half of the tariffs. Data show that U.S. companies have already paid over $21 billion in "reciprocal tariffs" that were ruled illegal, and this money may all have to be refunded to the companies.
Trump's tariff policy is facing legal challenges. The U.S. Federal Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled some tariffs illegal, including the so-called "fentanyl tariffs" imposed on China. This is a heavy blow to the Trump administration, as the tariff, a negotiation leverage, is being undermined from within.
China clearly demands that the U.S. must cancel the "fentanyl tariffs", otherwise no agreement can be reached. This firm stance is backed by China's established trade resilience. China has a complete industrial system and a vast domestic market, which provide a solid foundation for negotiations.
If the U.S. loses the supply of high-cost-effective Chinese goods, the U.S. consumer market will experience severe fluctuations. American high-end manufacturing also faces the risk of production stagnation due to supply chain disruptions, especially the export control of rare earth resources by China, which directly affects the production capacity of American high-end manufacturing.
Four rounds of trade negotiations have been conducted between China and the U.S., but progress has been minimal. The U.S. Treasury Secretary spoke frankly, saying: If we lose, the consequences for the U.S. would be unimaginable. These words reveal the anxiety and unease of the U.S. side.
The slowdown in export growth in August was mainly affected by three factors: the high base effect from the previous year, the fading of the "export rush effect" due to reduced uncertainty in the Sino-US tariff policy, and the continued expansion of the decline in exports to the U.S. These factors together caused a sharp drop in exports to the U.S.
China's trade structure transformation is accelerating. Unlike traditional perceptions, the decline in China's exports to the U.S. did not lead to a decline in overall exports, but instead achieved overall growth by opening up new markets. This structural shift indicates that the Chinese economy is adapting to a new global trade environment.
Discontent among U.S. business circles regarding the tariff policy is growing. They not only have to pay high tariffs, but also face the risk of supply chain disruption. Many U.S. companies have begun to look for alternative suppliers, but it is difficult to completely replace the quality and price of Chinese products in the short term.
China's export control measures on key materials such as rare earths are beginning to take effect. These materials are crucial for the high-tech industry and defense industry. China's dominant position in these areas gives it additional negotiation leverage.
The Sino-US trade friction has lasted for many years, and both sides are adjusting their strategies. China's "negotiate without concession" strategy reflects its increasing economic confidence and negotiation strength. This confidence comes from China's successful market diversification strategy and its complete industrial system.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7548779746281259570/
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