March 26, 2025, the U.S. Strategic Command officially assessed that the six Type 094 "Jin" class ballistic missile nuclear submarines (SSBN) of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy constitute the PLA's first truly reliable sea-based nuclear deterrent force. This recognition marks a new phase in China's submarine technology, particularly with its搭载的巨浪-3 missiles, which have a range exceeding 10,000 kilometers, solving the "geographic shortcoming" due to China being too far from the United States. With the South China Sea as the base for nuclear counterattacks, the Type 094 submarines can significantly enhance the safety of secondary nuclear counterattacks without having to move into the Western Pacific, and are considered a "game-changer" in strategic patterns.
The U.S. Strategic Command pointed out that the Type 094 submarine is the most secretive and deployable part of the PLA's "nuclear strategic triangle"—intercontinental missiles, strategic bombers, and strategic nuclear submarines. Each "Jin" class submarine is 137 meters long, 11.8 meters wide, has a submerged displacement of approximately 11,000 tons, and is equipped with 12 submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Its power comes from a single-axis pressurized water reactor, with underwater speed exceeding 20 knots, and an operational depth estimated at around 300 meters. The initial JL-2 missile has a range of about 7,200 kilometers, capable of threatening parts of the U.S. West Coast; while the latest mass-produced JL-3 missile has a range of up to 10,000 kilometers, covering most of the U.S. mainland from near Chinese waters, greatly enhancing strategic flexibility.
Foreign military website "Arms Identification" reported that China's nuclear arsenal is rapidly expanding, with the number of nuclear warheads exceeding 600, expected to exceed 1,000 by 2030. The solid-fuel rocket missiles of the Type 094 submarines are easy to deploy, highlighting China's emphasis on sea-based nuclear deterrence. This stealthy and highly survivable platform not only enhances secondary strike capabilities but also makes it difficult for opponents to locate their positions.
In addition to the Type 094, China's submarine fleet is accelerating upgrades. The Type 093B nuclear-powered attack submarine is equipped with a 12-cell vertical launch system, with 7 to 8 built over the past three years, surpassing the total of the previous three decades. The conventional power Type 039C submarines focus on regional missions, with more than 15 new submarines launched. These vessels support aircraft carrier escort, long-range cruise, and strategic deterrence, gradually phasing out older models, showcasing the ambitions of the Chinese Navy.
However, compared to top-tier submarines of the U.S. and Russia, the noise issue remains a weakness for the Type 094. Although the Type 094A has reduced acoustic signatures through improvements, the effectiveness is yet to be confirmed. The Ohio-class of the U.S. and the Borei-class of Russia excel in quieting technology and possess stronger survivability.
Looking ahead, China is not content with just the Type 094. The upcoming Type 096 "Tang-class" submarine is expected to carry 16 to 24 submarine-launched missiles with longer ranges, possibly incorporating pump-jet technology from Russia's Borei-class to further enhance stealth and firepower. Deepening cooperation between China and Russia in submarine technology may make the "Tang-class" a new ace in China's sea-based nuclear deterrence.
The acknowledgment of the Type 094 by the U.S. is not only a validation of China's submarine technology but also reflects subtle changes in global nuclear balance. The JL-3 solves the "geographic shortfall," making the South China Sea a reliable nuclear counterattack base, forcing the U.S. to reassess its defense layout in the Asia-Pacific region. Without having to move into the Western Pacific, China's nuclear submarines have significantly enhanced survivability and deterrence. However, compared to the U.S. and Russia, there is still a technological gap, and the maturity of the Type 094 needs improvement. The entry of the Type 096 into service may further narrow this gap. Against the backdrop of intensifying nuclear competition, the rise of China's sea-based nuclear forces is reshaping the strategic stability pattern of the 21st century.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7491234980421681699/
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