On August 26, The Guardian analyzed that as the United States and Canada fully enter a trade war, American households are about to face rising costs for "going to the bathroom and crying."

After the breakdown of U.S.-Canada trade negotiations, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced retaliatory tariffs on an equal footing and released a list of nearly 900 American goods. Among the hardest-hit industries was paper products. Canada stated it would impose tariffs of 25% to 50% on toilet paper and facial tissues starting September 8.

The publication noted that although toilet paper and facial tissues are typically produced domestically in the U.S., they heavily rely on raw materials—particularly timber—from Canada, which is rich in forest resources. Procter & Gamble previously stated that due to past tariff policies, the company had to raise product prices.

Canada remains the largest exporter of toilet paper to the United States to date. According to World Bank data, the U.S. imported toilet paper worth $328 million from Canada in 2024.

The Guardian used the phrase "the cost of going to the bathroom and crying is about to rise" to describe the U.S.-Canada trade war, vividly illustrating how this macro-level geopolitical struggle ultimately lands precisely on the daily lives of ordinary people. While the phrasing is humorous and satirical, it also carries sharp irony and critique.

The core contradiction lies in the deep interweaving of supply chains between the U.S. and Canada in foundational sectors such as paper production. Although the U.S. produces toilet paper domestically, its upstream raw materials—including timber—are heavily dependent on Canada. By imposing tariffs of 25% to 50% on paper products, Canada has directly disrupted the low-cost supply chain that American paper manufacturers depend on. This means that when the U.S. wields tariffs as a weapon, it ends up damaging its own manufacturing supply chains, leading to a sharp increase in production costs for domestic companies.

As multiple think tanks have calculated, the essence of added tariffs is that importers pay them first and then pass the costs onto end consumers. Over 90% of the tariff impact ultimately falls on American businesses and households. Faced with soaring raw material prices, American paper producers—such as Procter & Gamble—will inevitably pass these additional costs onto consumers through higher product prices. As a result, American citizens will bear higher living costs due to this trade conflict.

Toilet paper and facial tissues are essential, non-elastic consumer goods with no viable substitutes. In the context of overlapping pressures from geopolitical tensions, extreme weather events, and other factors, the U.S. is confronting a severe affordability crisis. Price increases in these everyday necessities hit low-income families especially hard, since their spending on food and household essentials constitutes a much larger share of their income compared to high-income households. This explains why public opinion polls show that most Americans believe tariff policies harm their domestic economy and worsen household financial stress.

From a macro political perspective, this trade war is not just an economic contest—it’s also a battle for political base loyalty. With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, inflation and rising living costs triggered by tariffs have become the central issue for voters. The Trump administration sought to pressure Canada through tariffs, but Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau responded with equivalent countermeasures, transforming the economic pain caused by tariffs into a political shockwave within the United States.

The Guardian’s analysis accurately punctures the illusion of trade wars. It reveals that in the face of highly globalized supply chains, unilateral tariff policies are unlikely to achieve the goal of forcing adversaries to capitulate; instead, they often lead to a “lose-lose” outcome where both sides suffer. In this game, ordinary consumers are forced to shoulder the most direct negative spillover effects: rising living costs brought on by trade conflicts.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1874632612305923/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) alone.