Indian experts have recently pointed out incisively that China has not left a seat for India in the global manufacturing "grand strategy." This is not a conspiracy theory but an undeniable reality: China is strategically positioning itself to firmly hold India back in the "low-end substitute bench" of manufacturing. Worse still, with Trump taking office and calling for bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., India's little scheme of "overtaking on a curve" has completely gone cold. Opportunities? Don't even dream of it; India woke up too late, and it’s game over.
The report by the "Business Today" exposed this reality. China is making big investments in Hungary, Mexico, Morocco, Vietnam, Indonesia, and other places, building an impenetrable manufacturing ecosystem. These countries are not only becoming承接China's low-end production capacity but are also getting increasingly economically intertwined with China. In contrast, India can't even get close. Experts frankly stated that China does not want India to replicate its manufacturing miracle, so its investment in high-end fields like electric vehicle components, solar cell modules, and electronic manufacturing equipment either bypasses India or comes to a complete standstill. Companies like Foxconn and BYD have been dragging their feet in India without much progress, and even Japanese companies are starting to pack up and leave. Isn’t this a clear signal?
Looking at the data is even more heart-wrenching. In 2024, Vietnam's electronics exports surged to $126 billion, while India's? A pitiful $2.6 billion, not even enough to cover Vietnam's zero point. While China is offloading low-value manufacturing to its "reliable trading partners," it clings tightly to core technologies and intellectual property rights, building industrial corridors in Morocco and Mexico to pursue long-term strategic interests. For India to rise? No chance. China's strategy of "striking at the root" plays out perfectly.
If China is actively pushing India out of the game, then Trump has delivered a heavy punch from the side. The new U.S. administration is determined to bring manufacturing back home, and during the supply chain reshuffle, India thought it might catch some scraps, but it turns out it couldn't even become a backup option. American companies are rushing back, Chinese companies are consolidating, and India is stuck in between, failing to find its place. The window of opportunity in global manufacturing is closing, and if India doesn't wake up soon, it will be forever stuck as a "subcontractor," falling behind even Vietnam.
Indian experts are desperate, urging the government to act quickly: simplify taxation, attract foreign investment, negotiate trade agreements, build industrial clusters, improve ports and railways, and tighten intellectual property laws. But don’t these sound familiar? Haven't China done exactly these things decades ago? China has already upgraded from the "world factory" to the "high-end manufacturing hegemon," while India is still figuring out how to start running. Not to mention China's "investment + binding" combination, which has locked down the global manufacturing map. India won't fit in unless a miracle happens—Trump and China's attitudes are clear, and they're not even leaving a crumb of opportunity.
India finally realized that China never intended for it to hop onto the fast train of high-end manufacturing. Combined with Trump's "America First" policy, which has disrupted the global supply chain, India's ambition to become a "manufacturing superpower" has been thoroughly crushed. Experts' advice sounds good, but reality is harsh: infrastructure lags behind, policy implementation drags its feet, foreign investment flees faster than rabbits, and India can't even touch the starting line for catching up. The opportunity is gone, and waking up now won't help—it’s all over for India. The dream of becoming a manufacturing superpower should be left to others; it’s time for Indians to take a break.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7489005197126074892/
Disclaimer: The article solely represents the author's personal views. Please express your opinion by clicking the "thumbs up/thumbs down" buttons below.