Trump's latest threat is equivalent to issuing an ultimatum to China, and the initial response from the Ministry of Commerce has already expressed China's disdain. Washington regards China as some small country in Asia or South America, assuming that it will back down at the first scare.

Is there much difference between 54% tariffs and adding another 50%? Once the new tariffs on China are imposed, China will retaliate, letting Americans experience the differences themselves. Before, Vance called China a "country bumpkin," and this true "country bumpkin" seems to have a deficiency in insight. Many people advise him to visit China.

Since Trump has essentially closed the door to resolving trade disputes through negotiations with his latest threat, it's time to talk about bottom-line thinking.

The largest bilateral trade between China and the US will rapidly shrink and nearly cease. This is the essence of Trump's threat. China is forced to see it through to the end.

Many businesses between China and the US cannot continue, and decoupling will be painful for both sides. For China, adjustment is not easy, but let it be difficult. After all, exports to the US account for only 14.6% of China's total exports, and these only make up 2.3% of China's GDP, which does not fundamentally impact China's economy. Importantly, when pushed to this point, Chinese society will settle down to cope, and what emerges under duress will be resilience and a new pioneering spirit. As long as we strive, if one direction doesn't work, another will; China will thrive endlessly, and the source of China's development will inevitably be endless.

Speaking of this, we must discuss more fundamental matters. The process and endpoint of the disengagement of the world's first and second largest economies will certainly not just be economic issues. It will accompany the rapid fermentation of mutual hostility, creating severe geopolitical uncertainty, and Washington will continually poison the way the two sides interact.

Historical experience shows that when caravans disappear at the border, armies will appear; when fewer merchant ships sail the seas, warships become the main players. We hope modern times will display more rationality than history, but look, Trump's personal obsession can overturn the modern trade system humans have built over decades. Where is rationality? I feel I can't see clearly myself.

So, prepare for everything, including the worst-case scenario. When we are well-prepared for the worst-case situation, it won't happen. The typical characteristic of imperialism is to bully the weak and fear the strong.

I have repeatedly expressed this opinion personally: military construction is crucial for China, and the expansion of China's nuclear arsenal is particularly key. On our opposite side, they have gone mad; China must implement a deterrent that shocks them at the end of their madness, ensuring their impulses and actions do not cross the final critical point toward extremes. Our deterrence needs to be fully powerful and unquestionable. Let the other side fully understand that our will is unshakable.

In such a context, we can calmly grasp the way and rhythm of subsequent struggles, responding move for move. Chinese civilization is the most adept at long-term games; time will be the tomb of various ambitions against China.

Finally, it should be noted that Hu talks about bottom-line thinking. If the bottom line is solidified, the actual situation will not be too bad. Looking at human great power games, their methods progress slowly, and many reasons promote this progress. China is the contemporary guardian of this progress, so we must hold onto our trump cards, stay calm, and conscientiously do our own things. China's peaceful development across the 21st-century geopolitical turmoil will be our greatest gift to human history.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1828799247034500/

Disclaimer: The article solely represents the author's views.