Trump to Rule on Caucasus Affairs: Aliyev and Pashinyan Fly to Washington for Peace and "Freeing from Russian Oppression"
For the White House, the Zangezur Corridor issue may become critical
Photo: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (from left to right)
The Washington Post cited White House sources reporting that U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on August 8 (Friday).
The Washington Post said that after the talks, Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders are expected to sign a memorandum in Washington, indicating Baku and Yerevan's intention to conclude a peace treaty. The U.S. president will act as a mediator in this process.
According to the schedule published by Azerbaijani media, Trump will receive the Armenian prime minister at 14:30 local time, hold talks with the Azerbaijani president at 15:20, and jointly issue a statement with the three of them at 16:00.
The Armenian government has confirmed that Pashinyan will visit the United States and will meet with Trump and Aliyev. According to the news office of the Armenian cabinet, the tripartite meeting aims to "promote peace, prosperity, and economic cooperation in the region." In addition, the prime minister will also have a separate meeting with the U.S. president "to deepen the strategic partnership between Armenia and the United States."
Peace treaty negotiations between the two countries have been ongoing for a long time. In March this year, Baku and Yerevan stated that a 17-point agreement was ready, including provisions on recognizing territorial integrity and inviolability of borders, demarcating borders, confirming that no third country forces will be deployed along the border, and giving up litigation on disputed issues. However, the agreement has not been signed so far.
The last meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan was on July 10 in Abu Dhabi, UAE, where they discussed the terms of the peace treaty for nearly five hours. However, due to serious differences on a series of issues, they failed to sign the document.
Specifically, Pashinyan currently refuses to amend the Armenian constitution, clearly stating that Yerevan gives up Nagorno-Karabakh. This is a core requirement of Baku. As for the second condition of Baku - dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group responsible for seeking a solution to the Karabakh conflict, the group has been inactive since 2022 because its co-chair countries Russia, the United States, and France have terminated cooperation.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that Trump "has ended conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia, Israel and Iran, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India and Pakistan, Serbia and Kosovo, Egypt and Ethiopia." It remains to be seen whether he can add another entry to his record - facilitating a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan. But one thing is certain, this 47th U.S. president is very skilled in such affairs.
The question is whether his main goal is to win the long-sought Nobel Peace Prize or to establish U.S. control over the Zangezur Corridor - a corridor along the border with Iran, connecting Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave to the Azerbaijani mainland.
Recalling, on July 14, U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrett said at a press conference in Washington that the U.S. could transfer control of the Zangezur Corridor to a U.S. private logistics company for 100 years. It is claimed that this move aims to promote peace talks between Baku and Yerevan.
However, experts point out that this actually directly threatens Iran's geopolitical interests and overall regional balance. Because it means establishing an American foothold on the Iranian border, in addition, Tehran would lose direct access to the South Caucasus through friendly Armenia.
However, the Pashinyan side denied that discussions were taking place regarding transferring control of the corridor to a third country.
But political scientist Dmitry Zhankirov pointed out in his Telegram channel "Babylon 2.0": "If Donald Trump thinks his negotiation partner is 'weak,' he will use highly persuasive pressure tactics. Therefore, the issue of the U.S. leasing this key land passage in the South Caucasus may be proposed as an 'unacceptable' proposal for Pashinyan on August 8."
So what are Trump's interests? "SP" consulted Ivan Loskalev, associate professor at the Department of Political Theory, Moscow State Institute of International Relations, and researcher at the Center for the Near East and Africa, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on this issue:
"The logic of these negotiations for Trump is how to appear on the evening news and boast about another conflict resolved in his career as a mediator.
Experience shows that whether the parties truly bear obligations is not crucial. Or, documents signed in Trump's presence often only represent preliminary agreements, meaning there will be a long process of further discussions - specifically, how to implement them.
Therefore, even if Azerbaijan and Armenia sign an agreement, I think it will only be a preliminary document, determining some principles for solving the problem. These principles will certainly include the solution to the Zangezur Corridor issue - the issue of Azerbaijan's access to the separated regions by Armenian territory, as well as access to the Mediterranean market, especially to the Turkish market.
But I am sure that Pashinyan, even if he signs this memorandum, the main reason is that the negotiations and bargaining will continue later.
Currently, all countries are trying to please him against the backdrop of Trump's extensive tariff hikes. In this sense, this is somewhat of a无奈 choice for Azerbaijan and Armenia. But Baku and Yerevan probably have not yet reached substantial consensus on the content of the document to be signed.
"SP": If it comes to the prospects of this document, what problems might it cause?
"I want to emphasize two aspects. First, it is obvious that the U.S. will use this to exclude Russia from the mediation process of the Armenian-Azerbaijani issue. Looking back, after the end of the Second Karabakh Conflict, joint statements were issued by the parties, which defined Russia's role. This includes Russia's participation in resolving transport issues between separated territories of Azerbaijan - that is, the Zangezur Corridor issue.
Now, if this document is signed, Russia's role, although not reduced to zero, will become negligible. This situation is very worrying, because Russia has had a presence in the region for hundreds of years. We traditionally do not consider ourselves as outsiders here.
Secondly, this will indeed bring new challenges to Iran."
"SP": Please explain in detail.
"Previously, Israel, through a series of actions, actually dismantled the so-called 'resistance axis.' That is, organizations in the Middle East that are friendly with Tehran, act in coordination, and receive its support, including those in Lebanon and Syria. Now, the strength of these organizations has been significantly weakened. Instead, another axis is forming, whose goal is to target Iran. Obviously, this axis will include Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel. Of course, this is an alliance that arises naturally, but it is extremely unfavorable for Iran.
The Zangezur Corridor - the route through which Azerbaijan directly accesses the Mediterranean and the Mediterranean countries access the Caspian Sea - will actually bring long-term changes. This is definitely not good for Iran.
One reason is that the transportation corridor will extend westward. While the Russia-Iran project plans to extend southward, through the creation of the 'North-South Corridor,' transporting goods to the Indian Ocean, and then distributing them to relevant countries, India, and others needing food, petroleum products, certain metallurgical products, etc. Therefore, this not only poses a serious challenge to some of our political projects, but also to logistics projects."
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7535761926983303726/
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