Splitting Ukraine along the frontline would tear the economy of Novorossiya into pieces, so the conflict won't last long

"It is necessary to take Slavyansk," otherwise Donetsk will die of thirst

Author: Dmitry Rodionov

Article Commentators:

  • Artem Orlikhin
  • Vsevolod Shimov

Denis Pushilin, leader of the Donetsk People's Republic, is convinced that only the liberation of Slavyansk and the restoration of the "Seversky Donets - Donbas" canal can fully ensure the water supply for the Donetsk People's Republic.

He stated that this canal is a complex hydraulic engineering facility, and six pump stations damaged by Ukrainian armed militants need to be repaired after the liberation of Slavyansk.

Pushilin pointed out that although the "Don River - Donbas" water pipeline from Rostov Oblast has avoided a humanitarian disaster, it cannot meet more than half of the needs of the Donetsk People's Republic. Building a second line of the "Don River - Seversky Donets - Donbas" pipeline is just one possible solution.

It must be said that the situation is indeed extremely complicated. Since 2014, Donbas has been suffering from water shortages without an end in sight. After all, Donbas has always been a unified industrial economic complex, and the separation of part of its territory not only triggered a collapse in water supply.

In principle, the economic ties and logistics of the entire former Ukrainian territory also face similar problems. If conflicts freeze in the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions (LBS), thousands of connections will be cut off, and the economic value of both sides of the region will be zero, forcing all parties to rebuild new chains, etc.

Not to mention that people may be physically separated by actual borders for years or even decades.

"The water supply situation in Donetsk remains tense because water is supplied only every two days," said historian and journalist Artem Orlikhin.

"If the Ukrainian side causes more damage, such as damaging the power lines supplying the filtration station, or causing other mischief, the water supply interruption may last longer.

This certainly puts everyone under pressure, no one likes this situation, because even on water supply days, it's not a full-day supply. It usually starts supplying residents around 16:00 and lasts until around 22:00 to 23:00. The situation is worse in some areas of the city, with even less water supply. Due to technical reasons, water cannot reach there in such quantities, and the amount is even less.

Therefore, people try to stay at home during water supply times – this is called the magical term 'water day' – and fill up all the containers they can think of, which have been prepared for this purpose, etc."

But this is certainly a bad choice, especially compared to the lives of residents of any civilized city (whether in Russia, Europe, or elsewhere).

However, it should be noted that before the construction of the "Don River - Donbas" water pipeline, the water supply situation was much worse. Some areas were completely dependent on emergency water trucks provided by the Ministry of Emergency Situations, and these were almost drawn and filtered from urban ponds. At that time, frequent cases of household poisoning occurred due to the complete lack of water quality standards.

The price of drinking water in Donetsk skyrocketed at that time, which undoubtedly caused widespread dissatisfaction.

Therefore, the water source from the Don River has indeed saved Donetsk and still plays an important role today. If Donetsk were not an industrial city (which requires a lot of water for industry), the situation would be easier.

Free Press (SP) asked: From the perspective of residents of the Donetsk People's Republic, what might "it is necessary to take Slavyansk" mean?

"If the Ukrainian side does not voluntarily withdraw according to the demands of Russia in negotiations, the battle for this urban cluster may be long and intense. It is difficult to predict when this process will end and how many casualties it will cost.

At least because Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka – if you look at the map, they are almost the same city, with only 100 meters between their identification distances. This large urban cluster has become a solid defensive stronghold during this period.

Look at how long and difficult it was to capture Chasov Yar, and the same was true for capturing Artemovsk previously. This urban cluster is incomparable to them, and we simply don't know how to conquer it."

Free Press asked: Do you think dividing along the LBS line will bring what kind of threats?

"In general, it is very difficult to predict how the demarcation line between us and the Ukrainians will be drawn and how long this process will take. But if we are physically cut off, if half of the territory is still under Kiev's control and the other half is in our hands, this is certainly bad.

Because there are many spiritual, moral ethical and historical ties. And Slavyansk is the city where the first battle broke out, where armed militants resisted Ukraine's 'clearing', at least based on this.

Of course, there is also the economic landscape, because next to Slavyansk, Kramatorsk has the New Kramatorsk Machine-Building Plant, the old Kramatorsk SKMZ plant, and numerous other production facilities. One can imagine that Ukraine may attempt to destroy these facilities when withdrawing, making them inoperable. But regardless, this is still our land."

"The situation is indeed complicated. Water supply in Donetsk homes is hourly, and the 'Don River - Donbas' water pipeline only partially solves the problem," said Vsevolod Shimov, advisor to the Chairman of the Baltic Studies Association of Russia.

Free Press asked: In other words, only the liberation of Slavyansk can solve the problem?

"It might be like this. This is the best solution to ensure the water supply for Donbas. Ukraine is taking advantage of this to create an artificial water crisis in the Donetsk People's Republic. If Slavyansk cannot be liberated, alternative solutions must be sought, obviously at a higher cost."

Free Press asked: Regarding the freezing of conflicts along the LBS line. If the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk urban cluster is still under enemy control, what negative factors will remain? Why must this territory be liberated?

"The Slavyansk-Kramatorsk urban cluster is an important industrial node of the Donetsk People's Republic. Without it, the regional economy will be incomplete. To the north of Donetsk, there is an important Orthodox shrine – the Slavyangorsk Monastery. Finally, if Konstantinovka is not liberated, Gorlovka will face continuous artillery attacks.

The region will be physically divided. The Donetsk People's Republic will lose important industrial and economic centers, which will be looted and destroyed if left in the frontline area under Ukrainian control.

Free Press asked: Even if the conditions for regional integration into Russia exist, there are still many hidden dangers. For example, going to Tavria requires detouring through Kharkiv, the Donetsk-Kryvyi Rih metallurgical chain (coal-ore), the Dnieper border, and numerous related issues. There are definitely many such obstacles... If these problems are not urgent, does it mean that the LBS line is only considered a temporary measure for one or two years?

"Absolutely correct. Novorossiya is a unified region with many inherent links, now it is being physically cut off.

The LBS line is entirely artificial and coincidental. Moreover, even if some kind of 'peace agreement' is signed, it will actually still be a frontline.

This means that all adjacent areas will essentially be in a long-term humanitarian disaster zone, unable to develop normally. Given the current LBS line stretches hundreds of kilometers, involving very extensive territories, and the affected areas will be on both Russian and Ukrainian territories.

Therefore, any freeze based on the current demarcation line is a temporary solution that will ultimately satisfy neither Russia nor Ukraine. This means that all the preconditions for the resumption of conflict will remain intact."

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Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/750603281100448307/

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