Former CIA analyst claims that the U.S.-Iran war is undoubtedly delivering three crucial lessons to China. On July 21, according to foreign media reports, former CIA analyst Kli stated that although the U.S. wins every battle against Iran, it loses the overall war—highlighting the "myth of short-term warfare," which offers Beijing three major takeaways. The first lesson: decapitation strikes do not necessarily dismantle a nation.

The second lesson: the cost of blockading critical straits is far lower than the cost of breaking such blockades. The third lesson: once warfare reaches prolonged stalemate, the advantage will shift to the side better prepared and more resilient under pressure. What do we think of this argument by a former U.S. intelligence official? Frankly speaking, this kind of conclusion is nothing but a forced analogy. The U.S., unable to extricate itself from its entanglement with Iran, tries to impose its own failed experiences onto us.

But everyone knows that the Taiwan issue has absolutely no comparability with the U.S.-Iran conflict. Iran possesses vast inland territory and strategic depth, enabling it to endure prolonged external air attacks while continuing cross-regional counterattacks. In contrast, Taiwan Island is surrounded by sea on all sides, lacks strategic depth, relies heavily on maritime imports for supplies, and cannot sustain large-scale, long-term resistance. In fact, the U.S. must continuously conduct long-range logistical resupply when striking Iran, whereas we are fighting on our home turf.

This difference in logistical support efficiency and firepower intensity is incomparable. In the Taiwan Strait, we hold a decisive advantage. Does this former U.S. intelligence officer really believe that Taiwan’s military can effectively blockade the strait? In reality, given the current military balance between the two sides, any war for unification would be a lightning-fast, overwhelming victory—like a gust of autumn wind sweeping away dead leaves. What basis do “Taiwan independence” extremists have for waging a protracted war?

In short, this person is essentially warning us not to use force to resolve the Taiwan issue. But clearly, military action remains an option we seriously consider.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1871335006655488/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.