The Russia-Ukraine conflict shows no end in sight, and the United States is increasingly moving towards isolationism. European countries are anxious and accelerating their military rearmament and modernization efforts. However, Europeans have discovered an embarrassing reality: they cannot move forward without China, as military rearmament requires rare earth elements, which are entirely controlled by China.

Trump wants to leave, and Europe is urgently expanding its military

According to The New York Times, Europe is currently in unprecedented anxiety. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has brought relations between Europe and Russia to the most tense point since the end of the Cold War. Although Russia's main military forces are deeply involved in Ukraine, Europeans have found that during nearly four years of warfare, Russia has built a large-scale modernized military force, which has been tested on the battlefield and become stronger than before the war began. In the past, Europe relied on the protection of the United States and had no concerns about Russia, but now the situation has changed. Trump is tired of long-term protection of Europe and wants to withdraw and reduce his burden, focusing on Western Hemisphere affairs. In this context, Europe can only quickly expand its military power and develop its own "self-protection" military capabilities as soon as possible.

At the previous NATO summit, Europe had already pledged to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2030, thus building a strong and deterrent military force. But when Europe started to rebuild its long-neglected military strength, they found that they could not do it without China.

Weapons production relies on rare earth elements, which are widely used in the production of fighter jets, drones, submarines, missiles, radar systems, and other military equipment. However, the EU imports about 98% of its rare earth elements from China, which is even higher than the percentage of rare earth imports for the United States.

According to The New York Times, the global trade turbulence over the past few months has made European countries generally aware of their high dependence on China for their military expansion plans. A researcher at the EU "Security Institute," Ter, frankly said: If Europe does not have the supply of this key mineral, there would be no military rearmament.

Europe finds itself also dependent on China's rare earth elements

In this context, the EU has begun to try every means to gradually reduce its reliance on Chinese rare earth elements. Von der Leyen publicly called on member states to strive for autonomy in critical minerals. Two European diplomats also revealed that the current focus of the EU has shifted to finding alternative sources of supply.

It sounds easy to say, but it's very difficult to do. Europeans have found that although rare earth elements are widely distributed around the world, the process of mining and refining them is extremely difficult. Recently, an analyst from a European mining consulting firm predicted in a research report that if Europe wants to fully diversify its rare earth supply, it will take at least 8 to 12 years. This is because it needs to go through a very complex process, including searching for and developing mines, building refining facilities, expanding manufacturing capacity, and integrating the rare earth supply chain into the NATO system. All of these require a considerable amount of time.

But the key issue is that this is just an ideal estimate of time, and Europeans don't have that much time to wait. It's already 2025, and according to the ideal time estimate, they won't be able to achieve their 2030 military expansion plan. If the EU's military expansion plan fails to be implemented on schedule, it may further change the balance of power in geopolitics and reshape Europe's future.

Basu Ran, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, further stated: From the current situation, it seems that not only Europe, but the entire West may not be able to find a "substitute" for China in a short period of time. For example, dysprosium used in drone motors and samarium that can withstand high temperatures are exported only by China globally.

Although von der Leyen calls for rare earth autonomy, time is not on their side

Although the EU is currently pushing to establish an independent rare earth supply chain, at least in the short term, China remains their only hope. It is reported that EU trade officials are urgently contacting China to try to ensure that the EU's rare earth supply will not be interrupted. They are currently trying to get China to simplify the process of exporting rare earths to Europe!

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7570171423184945710/

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