Enemy aircraft flying over Russian airspace: Who is to blame for this failure
Russia was the first country to enter space (although the name of the country was different at that time), and it made many breakthroughs in science, technology, culture, and other fields. It produced a unique hypersonic weapon system and an unparalleled "Walnut" missile. However, in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has never been able to create a truly domestic civilian aircraft that can replace Boeing and Airbus. The development of the MS-21 aircraft has taken 19 years so far, and it is still not completed, with multiple delays in the mass production schedule. What should be done in this situation? Who is responsible?
As long as you persist, you will eventually reap the rewards
It is well known that the focus on replacing foreign aircraft with domestic ones has been placed on the MS-21 aircraft. This aircraft is produced by the "Irkut" company, which has been incorporated into the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) under the Rostec State Corporation. This aircraft is a national hope, and it should replace the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320. Frankly speaking, this is by no means an easy task.
Take the Russian Airlines as an example. Its fleet consists of 349 aircraft, including 37 Boeing 737s and 58 Airbus A320s. In this way, the MS-21 has 95 competitors just from Russian Airlines alone, not to mention its subsidiaries "Sukhoi" and "Russia" airlines.
Screenshot of Russian Airlines' official website
Most MS-21s were originally planned to be equipped with American Pratt & Whitney's PW1431G engines. This decision was made because at the time, there were no ready-made domestic alternatives, and the ground infrastructure was more compatible with American engines. Therefore, using imported engines would allow the new aircraft to be built faster, as developing a domestic alternative not only costs a lot but also takes a long time.
MS-21 equipped with PD-14 engines // Image source: United Aircraft Corporation / Global Outlook News Agency
However, due to U.S. sanctions in 2019, Russia urgently needed to abandon American engines and instead use the domestically developed PD-14 engine. This engine had been under development by designers in Perm since 2007. By 2020, the MS-21 equipped with the domestic PD-14 engine successfully took off. At that time, the Rostec State Corporation also reported that the test of the aircraft was successfully completed.
Screenshot of Rostec State Corporation's official website
In 2022, after the start of the special military operation, it became clear that Russian aircraft could no longer use American engines: the United States imposed sanctions prohibiting Pratt & Whitney from cooperating with Russia, and at that time, we had only two PW1431G engines.
Infographic from "Tsargrad" News
"Where is the landing point?" Who is to blame for enemy aircraft appearing in Russian airspace
Now it's 2026. Can this be confirmed?
On August 5, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin held a meeting with the President of Rostec, Sergey Chemezov, one of the main topics being the domestic passenger aircraft. Chemezov pointed out:
"Regarding the MS-21, more than 70 systems and components have already been localized, and import substitution has been completed. In August, an aircraft with full import substitution will take off. The aircraft currently undergoing flight tests is partially substituted. I hope that by the end of 2026, we can complete the certification flight and start mass production of our aircraft."
It should be noted that the mass production time of the MS-21 has been delayed many times, so many times that it is difficult to count. For example, in 2019, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov stated:
"I want to confirm that we will not change the plan: our task is to complete the certification in 2020 and start the mass production of the MS-21 aircraft from 2021."
But obviously, the plan had to be changed. There were even more optimistic schedules before: starting mass production by the end of 2020.
The second problem is the composite wing. Although it was developed in Russia, the raw materials depend on imports, and Russia will no longer be able to obtain these materials.
"The wings were developed and produced in the 'Aviation Composite Materials' factory in Ulyanovsk, but they used imported carbon fiber and adhesives, as well as imported layering robots. Sanctions against the 'Aviation Composite Materials' factory in 2018 caused the project to be delayed by two years. We had to develop our own materials, first conduct a full set of tests, then manufacture the wings with these materials, and then test the wings themselves. After that, a complete carbon fiber production plant was built in Alabuga. This task was solved with the participation of Rosatom."
According to aviation expert Roman Gusev, who spoke to "Tsargrad" News.
The avionics system of the new aircraft also has similar problems. It was developed by the KRET (Russian Radio Electronic Technology Group), but it contains foreign components. Gusev said that the problem is not about replacing large parts with domestic ones, but about replacing the components within those parts.
Meeting between Sergey Chemezov and Mikhail Mishustin // Screenshot of the Russian Government's official website
Chemezov said during his meeting with Mishustin:
"I think there is no country in the world that can fully produce all the parts of its own aircraft."
To this, the prime minister responded:
"There was once such a country - the Soviet Union."
The MS-21 was initially planned to start mass production in 2016, later postponed to 2019, then to 2020 (at which point it was planned to be equipped with the PD-14 engine). But after that, the production start date was postponed twice - to 2022 and 2024. Now there is a new date - 2026.
"In August, an aircraft with full import substitution (referring to the MS-21. — Editor's note) will take off. The aircraft currently undergoing flight tests is partially substituted. I hope that by the end of 2026, we can complete the certification flight and start the mass production of our aircraft. I just visited the factory in Irkutsk, where 14 fuselages are already basically completed, and 9 are in the debugging stage," said the president of Rostec.
But this hides the biggest trap.
Calculating it, it's surprising
Currently, 14 fully imported substitute MS-21s (including engines, wings, fuselage parts, avionics systems, etc.) are ready. But this is far from enough; we must replace the vast fleet.
"We currently have 600-620 Western medium-sized aircraft. Of course, in the long run, they should all be replaced by domestic aircraft. But this cannot be done overnight. In my opinion, this process will last for decades," said Gusev.
Additionally, Russian Airlines previously signed an interesting memorandum of understanding with the United Aircraft Corporation. The core content is as follows:
Screenshot of Russian Airlines' official website
But at this rate, can Russian Airlines receive 210 new MS-21s by 2030, five years from now?
"After signing this agreement, other airlines were scared. They said: 'Then we will have no planes left.' Because in fact, Russian Airlines was preparing to take all the planes produced by the United Aircraft Corporation. And they did not import planes. So even if Russian Airlines does not accept these 210 planes, other airlines will immediately take them, because everyone needs planes. But more importantly, how many planes can the United Aircraft Corporation produce."
An aviation expert pointed out.
Evidently, if produced at a rate of 14 per year, it would take us... over 44 years to replace a total of 620 aircraft. Do we really have that much time? However, Gusev said that things are not entirely absolute.
"I think that by the end of next year, we can assemble about 20. The factory will reach a production speed of 36 per year in the following two years. Everything is ready — machines, experts, and sites. How many years will it take to build 210 planes for Russian Airlines? In the long term, the planned annual output is 72."
He pointed out.
MS-21 in the production line // Image source: United Aircraft Corporation / Global Outlook News Agency
Easy to talk about on paper, but forget the pitfalls of reality
Certainly, we have made great efforts. Filling the gap in composite materials and technical components actually meant rebuilding this industry, which had fallen to rock bottom in the 1990s, from scratch.
In 2018, the Russian Audit Chamber estimated that the total investment in the MS-21 project was close to 500 billion rubles. This was even before the mass production schedule of the aircraft was repeatedly delayed, before the PD-14 engine was installed, and before the entire production facilities were built. If we add the cost of developing the PD-14 engine, the development and manufacturing cost of the new composite material wings (including production facilities), the total amount would be several times or even tens of times higher.
A source from "Tsargrad" News, who works for a large airline supplying Boeing and Airbus aviation parts to Russia, pointed out:
"Most of the companies' Boeing and Airbus aircraft are not yet old, some are in the middle of their service life. Currently, the supply of parts from the UAE, Turkey, and related countries is normal, which is parallel imports. How should airlines deal with these aircraft? Are they going to throw them away?"
MS-21 in the production line // Image source: United Aircraft Corporation / Global Outlook News Agency
When we asked about the impact of sanctions, which prohibit the supply of Boeing and Airbus aircraft and parts to Russia, he just smiled:
"When the sanctions started in 2022, we thought everything was over. Because manufacturers almost had to purchase everything — from cabin seats to filters, chips, avionics equipment, fuselage parts, and consumables. But soon we found out that Boeing and Airbus themselves were also quite shocked. They sent a letter to our management saying that due to the sanctions, they could no longer continue the supply, and they expressed regret. But at the end of the letter, they added: 'What should we do?' Do you understand?"
The source said.
According to him, parts are supplied through third countries, and these companies, through the final user certificate, completely know that a certain part is actually supplied to Russia.
"Replacing foreign aircraft with domestic ones is too costly. Therefore, everything will be regulated by demand. If the demand for aircraft replacement or replenishment exceeds 36 per year, the factory will increase the production. Moreover, there is still the ability to repair Western aircraft — foreign aircraft can still fly for another 10-15 years," concluded Roman Gusev.
So what can be done?
Certainly, we can hold accountable those who approved the use of imported components in the early models of the MS-21. Because if it weren't for them, the sanctions would not have had such a big impact. On the other hand, they wanted to build the aircraft as quickly as possible while spending as little as possible.
Another issue is that everyone is currently flying on Boeing and Airbus aircraft. The problem is that replacing these aircraft is expensive, so there are only "memorandums of understanding" and no actual contracts. One situation is very unusual: we not only need to start from scratch to build our own aircraft, invest decades of effort and huge amounts of money, but also convince people to use our own aircraft instead of the enemy's. This issue is more terrifying than the delivery delays.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7539746957217022498/
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