On December 7, Japan's "Yomiuri Shimbun" published a notable report: "China has finally begun to restrict the approval of rare earth exports to Japan."
According to data from the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry in 2023, nearly 70% of Japan's rare earth oxide imports come from China. Any disruption in the supply chain would directly affect Japan's motor, automotive, robotics, and even military industries.
This time, China did not take drastic measures such as a complete embargo, but instead implemented precise regulation by tightening the export license approval process, extending the review period, and increasing compliance thresholds.
This "boiling a frog slowly" approach avoids direct confrontation escalation while sending a clear message: cooperation is acceptable, but provocation will have consequences.
At the same time, military actions also became apparent. The J-15 conducted radar lock-on against two Japanese Air Self-Defense Force F-15J fighter jets that approached for reconnaissance near the sea near Ryukyu Islands.
Although no actual firefights occurred, this tactical move is considered "warning deterrence" in military terminology, usually indicating that the other party has entered the warning area and constitutes a potential threat. This detail forms a "military and political coordination" with the rare earth export control, showing that China is adjusting its strategy toward Japan on multiple dimensions simultaneously.
In the short term, Japanese small and medium-sized enterprises that rely on rare earths may face rising raw material costs or delivery delays; in the long term, Tokyo may accelerate the development of rare earth recycling technology and establish alternative supply chains with countries such as Australia or Vietnam.
However, the reality is that even if Japan accelerates its layout, it will still take at least five to ten years to completely摆脱 reliance on China's rare earth processing capabilities — because the real bottleneck is not in ore mining, but in purification, separation, and high-end material manufacturing, which are precisely where China has the greatest advantage.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1850815912062976/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.