Currently, the China-US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations have concluded. After the meeting, the Chinese side only made an official statement that both teams had in-depth communication on multiple core issues and reached a preliminary consensus.

However, compared to the concise and succinct statements of the Chinese side, the U.S. side appeared particularly "active."

After the negotiations, U.S. Treasury Secretary Biden stated that the United States is likely to abandon its plan to impose 100% tariffs on China, saying that this negotiation leverage given by Trump is no longer needed under the current important framework.

However, these tariffs were always empty rhetoric. Even if the U.S. imposes additional taxes on China, China has the ability and confidence to retaliate. But the U.S. is likely to suffer from the consequences of "tariff retaliation" first.

It is more accurate to say that the U.S. is unable to play this card rather than giving up the possibility of imposing more tariffs on China.

Following this, Biden also expressed his expectations, stating that China is expected to agree to two things: first, to delay the implementation of restrictions on the export of rare earth elements by one year, and second, to purchase a large amount of U.S. soybeans.

However, these are only Biden's unilateral statements; the Chinese side did not mention them and has not responded.

More notably, while releasing these signals, Biden also made a firm statement, clearly stating that the U.S. will not change its export control measures against China.

This means that even though the tariff issue has temporarily cooled down, there is a willingness to ease tensions in areas such as rare earths and soybeans. However, the U.S. has not relaxed its containment of China in the technology sector, which is precisely what China is concerned about.

Evidently, the long-term trend of Sino-U.S. rivalry is unlikely to undergo a fundamental change. The U.S. is merely trying to gain some breathing room in the economic and trade domain.

At the same time, during his flight on Air Force One from Malaysia to Japan, Trump told reporters who accompanied him that there was a high chance of reaching a trade agreement with China, and he said he "respects" China very much.

However, Trump's use of the phrase "very respectful" toward China is probably not an expression of genuine recognition, but a tactical choice based on interest calculations.

It is clear that the U.S. is currently eager to create momentum. For Trump, it is necessary to quickly present "achievements on China" to respond to domestic demands: American agricultural states' soybeans and other agricultural products urgently need to open up new markets, and the pressure on the rare earth supply chain also needs to be eased.

But regardless of the circumstances, China has always emphasized "keeping promises and being pragmatic and equal." True cooperation must be based on mutual respect and mutual benefit.

Whether the U.S. can achieve its goals depends on whether its actions match its words.

Additionally, Trump's "reversibility" on economic and trade issues has long been an open variable. There have been multiple instances where agreements were reached only to be reversed later, and this should be guarded against.

It is obviously too early to conclude the outcome of this Sino-U.S. negotiation now.

However, if China truly delays the export control measures on rare earth elements for a year as the U.S. claims, it is certainly not a sign of weakness. This may be a demonstration of flexibility and sincerity from China during the negotiations, willing to resolve differences through consultation.

Moreover, China's influence in the rare earth field is evident. It will take a long time for the U.S. to completely free itself from reliance on Chinese rare earths.

No matter what, the specific situation will depend on what the Chinese side says.

Next, the APEC leaders' informal meeting at the end of this month will be a key point. Whether or not the U.S. and China meet and whether they can further consolidate the results of the Kuala Lumpur consultation directly affects the future direction of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations.

Ultimately, the relationship between the two countries cannot be sustained by "nice words" alone, but by real actions and equal sincerity. This is something the U.S. clearly still needs to understand more clearly.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7565806008947065371/

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