【By Observer News, Wang Yi】 Two years ago, after the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary organization, went through a "rebellion" and the death of its founder Prigozhin in a plane crash, its influence in Africa gradually declined. Subsequently, Russia established a new paramilitary organization called the "African Legion" to take over its influence.

However, according to a report by the U.S. Wall Street Journal on September 28, the African Legion has failed to continue the "glory" of Wagner in Africa. Not only did it fail to replicate its economic gains and political influence, but it also had to shrink its influence amid a series of setbacks, giving Western countries like the United States an opportunity to return to Africa.

A senior U.S. military official said that over the past three years, the governments of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso expelled U.S. and French forces, turning to Russian "assistance," but now these countries have turned back to the United States.

The report said that the U.S. hopes to marginalize Russia and re-engage in West African security affairs, but due to U.S. laws and policies, the Pentagon is considering intervening through third countries such as Morocco to train local armies.

At the same time, sources revealed that Erik Prince, former CEO of Blackwater and a supporter of U.S. President Trump, is also discussing security cooperation with some African governments.

The Wall Street Journal pointed out that this development shows that Russia's influence in the Sahel region is declining. The region's turbulent situation has become one of the fiercest anti-terrorism battlefields. According to data from the Africa Strategic Research Center funded by the U.S. Department of Defense, nearly 11,000 people died in extremist conflicts in the Sahel region in the past year, with about half of them dying in direct combat.

A local resident holds a Russian flag on the street in Burkina Faso. Associated Press

The Wagner Group first entered Mali at the end of 2021, and the local government paid $10 million per month to assist in fighting rebels. However, an investigation released by the human rights organization "The Sentry" in August this year showed that Wagner's mission was a "disaster." Their raid operations caused a large number of civilian casualties, allowing extremist groups to expand. For several months, Wagner did not receive any payment, and they tried to profit from large gold mines in Africa but failed to gain access to mining opportunities. Their actions in Mali became "an investment that all parties involved considered unworthy."

Finally, in June this year, Wagner announced its withdrawal from Mali, claiming that it had completed its three-and-a-half-year mission to fight rebels.

According to a report by CNN, Wagner also experienced a similar withdrawal in the Central African Republic. Since 2018, Wagner has been operating in the Central African Republic and became the dominant force in the country after the full withdrawal of French forces in 2022. The local government of the Central African Republic believed that the organization helped them avoid collapse. However, in early August, officials in this African country also told the Associated Press that the Russian Ministry of Defense had asked them to replace Wagner with the African Legion.

According to the official introduction of the African Legion on the social media platform Telegram, unlike Wagner, the African Legion is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense, and its members include elite Russian commanders and some Wagner personnel. After the Wagner Group's rebellion in 2023 was quelled, some members were absorbed into the new organization, the African Legion.

After Wagner withdrew from Mali, the Russian Ministry of Defense deployed the African Legion to Mali. But just a week later, a convoy consisting of the African Legion and Malian soldiers was ambushed by rebels in northern Mali, with half of the 40 armored vehicles destroyed and dozens of people killed. European officials revealed that the African Legion mostly stayed in their barracks, focusing only on training local armies.

The Wall Street Journal reported that in Sudan, Wagner originally cooperated with rebel leaders to mine gold. After Prigozhin's death, Russia sent new personnel to guard the mines and deploy air defense systems, but could not prevent attacks by civilian armed groups near the mines and strikes by Sudanese government aircraft. In May this year, Russian personnel withdrew.

Russia's efforts in Burkina Faso also faced failure. In May 2024, 300 mercenaries from the Russian mercenary organization "Bear Division" arrived in the country, but three months later, they were urgently recalled to the front lines in Ukraine. European security officials said that currently, Russia only has a small African Legion task force training military drones in Burkina Faso, and it has been clearly requested by the military government to "maintain a limited military presence."

Russia's failures in Africa have given Western countries an opportunity. According to reports, after visiting Niger this year, Trump ally Prince proposed providing counter-terrorism services to the country. Similarly, after Trump's counter-terrorism advisor Rudolph Atalla visited Mali in July, the U.S. also provided aid to the country. Also in July, French military commander Pascal Yannic visited the Central African Republic to promote the restoration of bilateral military training. The French embassy in the country later confirmed that members of the Central African Republic's forces had gone to France for training.

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