[Source/Observer Network by Ruan Jiaqi]

In the face of the absurd trade measures imposed by the Trump administration, China has increased retaliatory tariffs by 84%. This leaves American soybean farmers, who have been forced to endure nearly a hundred tariffs and "play the full game," finally breathing a sigh of relief.

According to a report in The New York Times on the 10th, Trump's 90-day deferral of "reciprocal tariffs" for most countries did not ease the anxiety of American farmers. They are now facing an even more severe situation: their trade links with China, their largest customer, have been completely severed.

An international trader dealing in grains and oilseeds told Reuters, "This is like shutting down all channels of U.S. agricultural exports to China. With such high tariffs, we are unsure if any U.S. agricultural products can still be exported."

Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association and a farmer from Kentucky, is deeply distressed by this situation. He cannot help but recall the lessons of the previous trade war, "The scars left by the last trade war haven't healed yet."

"Seven years ago, U.S. farmers had already lost a significant share of the Chinese market, which was filled by Brazil. To this day, we have been unable to reclaim our lost territory," he said.

He fears that the new round of trade war with China may cause U.S. farmers to lose more overseas market shares. "We are handing over opportunities to our competitors, who will seize them and firmly hold onto them once they get them, and it will be very difficult for us to reclaim these markets," he said.

In his distress, this ardent supporter of Trump, who had voted for him three times, published a long article through the media offering advice. With heartfelt words, he called out to Trump, hoping that he would not put the voters who helped him win re-election by an overwhelming majority into "misery," and urged him to quickly reach a negotiation agreement with China.

Ragland wrote, "The trade war with China might bankrupt U.S. farmers by 2027. All the hard work, sweat, and effort we have poured into farming could be wiped out with just one stroke of Trump's pen."

Bloomberg cited data from provider Epiq Bankruptcy Analytics, stating that so far this year, 88 family farms or corporate farms have filed for bankruptcy, compared to 50 during the same period in 2024. If the U.S. continues its tariff policies, this number is expected to rise further.

Letter from Ragland to Trump

An article in Foreign Policy noted that after China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, Trump's key voter base—American farmers—would inevitably be affected. American farmers heavily rely on trade with China, which is one of the world's largest buyers of agricultural products, and remains the largest market for U.S. soybean exports even after the first trade war.

During Trump's first presidential term, American farmers suffered greatly in the trade war. From 2018 to 2019, losses in U.S. agricultural exports exceeded $27 billion, with $25.7 billion directly related to retaliatory tariffs imposed by China. To comfort American farmers, Trump launched a relief plan worth $28 billion.

However, according to The New York Times, the beneficiaries of this subsidy were mainly large farms and farmers in the South, which sparked widespread controversy over fairness, and some farmers felt deceived. As for all the tariff revenues from that trade war, almost all of them were ultimately used to relieve agriculture.

The report stated that with the outbreak of the new trade war, farmers in states led by Republicans again suffered heavy losses, with particularly severe economic damage. They worry that the long-term trade war with China will cut off their connection with the largest export market.

The growing concerns were also evident at the House hearing of U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer.

Darin LaHood, a Republican representative from Illinois, a state with a strong agricultural presence, clearly showed concern about the impact of tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports. During Wednesday's hearing, he questioned, "When I talk to farmers, I find they are full of anxiety, stress, and uncertainty because agriculture is usually the first to be hit when a trade war breaks out."

U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer being questioned at the hearing on Wednesday. Photo by Associated Press.

According to U.S. media reports, Agriculture Secretary Rollins revealed that the Trump administration is considering restarting the aid program for American farmers from his first term, but has not yet decided whether to provide financial assistance to farmers.

At Thursday's White House cabinet meeting, Rollins admitted that farmers and ranchers have been struggling due to inflation and are concerned about the uncertainty in trade. However, she insisted that farmers support Trump's economic agenda.

Rollins even claimed, "Our goal is not to implement a relief program at all. We believe that these changes and the readjustment of the economy will bring unprecedented prosperity to all Americans, especially farmers and ranchers."

This is far from the truth. The American Soybean Association has been urging the Trump administration to reach a new trade agreement with China to avoid catastrophic consequences for American producers. Chairman Ragland bluntly stated that American farmers have been used as "negotiating tools" and unwillingly became "sacrifices" for the "greater good."

"We are very worried because exports are the core and soul of the U.S. soybean industry," Ragland lamented. In the trade war during Trump's first term, soybean farmers accounted for more than 70% of the $27 billion loss in U.S. agriculture, suffering severe damage from which they have not fully recovered. Now they must withstand another wave of strikes.

He further analyzed that the new round of trade war might cause U.S. farmers to lose more overseas market shares. Once they lose these shares, they will be unable to make a profit.

"China has established a partnership with Brazil and invested in infrastructure, ports, railways, roads, and bridges. It is almost impossible for us to reclaim these market shares," he added.

"For the U.S. soybean industry and agriculture as a whole, we must maintain strong exports to sustain industry growth. Right now, our agricultural economy is already in dire straits. Further damaging exports would be extremely dangerous and terrifying for agricultural practitioners. This is how we feel most acutely."

Ragland's concerns are not unfounded. Bloomberg reported on the 10th that this week, Chinese soybean crushing companies purchased a large amount of Brazilian soybeans, with an unusually large scale and speed. According to a source familiar with the matter, this week, Chinese importers bought at least 40 shipments of soybeans from Brazil, totaling at least 2.4 million tons, which is approximately one-third of China's average monthly soybean crushing volume. These cargoes are mostly scheduled for delivery between May and July.

According to Reuters reports, after China imposed a 10% to 15% tariff on U.S. agricultural products in March, it accelerated the shift from importing soybeans from the U.S. to Brazil. This year's Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be bountiful, with exports to China set to soar in the second quarter, potentially setting a historical record.

According to the USDA report, as of March 27, nearly 600,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans sold during the current marketing year, which ends in August, have not yet been shipped. It is unclear whether these shipments will be sent or canceled directly.

"American farmers can no longer afford more costs," Ragland wrote sincerely in the letter to Trump. "Since 1808, my family has been farming for nine generations, and I intend to pass this business on to my three sons, aged 14, 12, and 9. But now, I fear that one administrative order could destroy this family business. When planting in the spring, I am filled with fear and confusion, wondering if anyone will buy my soybeans come harvest time in October."

"I am one of the 500,000 soybean farmers in the U.S. who are suffering, but I am lucky. I can apply for a loan to cover a $150,000 monthly loss. However, I have witnessed many colleagues forced to sell their family farms that sustain them. Some have even declared bankruptcy and are doing whatever jobs they can find just to make ends meet as laborers."

He shouted to Trump, "This trade war with China is gambling with the livelihoods of Americans, especially those of American farmers. Please reach an agreement with China now."

This article is an exclusive piece by Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7491957837782909449/

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