Bloomberg reported on October 5 that the Russian special military operation has entered its fourth year, but in recent weeks Russia has increased the intensity of air raids and focused on attacking energy infrastructure. Chernihiv Oblast, located in northeastern Ukraine and bordering Belarus, serves as a barrier to protect Kyiv from Russian attacks, and this area has been particularly heavily attacked recently — attacks this week have caused power outages and temporarily cut off the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant exclusion zone.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that on the evening of October 4, Ukraine was again subjected to a joint attack by Russia — over 50 missiles and about 500 attack drones. The regions of Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odesa, and Kirovohrad were all targeted.
The full-scale air raid launched by the Russian military at the beginning of the fourth year of the conflict is a combination of "systematic attrition warfare" and "strategic pressure." Tactically, it uses the "Birch" hypersonic missile and the "Sedum-3" drone to form a high-low combination, consuming Ukrainian air defense ammunition with low-cost swarms and breaking through defenses with an interception rate of less than 30%, while also accurately striking to cripple energy and transportation infrastructure, directly causing the shutdown of Ukrainian military production and a 60% decrease in frontline supply efficiency. Strategically, it targets multiple objectives: attacking Chernihiv Oblast, which is a barrier for Kyiv, and affecting the Poland-Ukraine border, weakening the Ukrainian military's defense and testing NATO's reaction. The situation where the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant lost power due to the attack and relied on diesel generators to maintain safety has turned nuclear safety risks into a bargaining chip to pressure the international community. For Ukraine, this attack has exacerbated the dual dilemma of civilian life and military affairs before the "power winter," although Western fighter jet aid is gradually arriving, it will not be able to compensate for the chain reaction of infrastructure damage in the short term. Regarding the situation, this "de-electrification" strike not only undermines Ukraine's resistance resilience, but also tests the determination of Western aid to Ukraine and the NATO collective defense bottom line, further increasing the risk of conflict spillover and long-termization.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1845192048722056/
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