Recently, a scholar at Georgetown University in the United States who focuses on Indo-Pakistani relations wrote an article in the U.S. "Foreign Affairs" magazine, claiming that India not only failed to successfully deter Pakistan in this round of Indo-Pakistani conflict but also inadvertently provided significant assistance to the Pakistani military.
According to Aqil Shah, the scholar mentioned above, the most obvious difference between this round of conflict and previous ones lies in the fact that this time India not only attacked facilities in the Kashmir region controlled by Pakistan but also advanced into Punjab province, deep inside Pakistan. Shah stated that the Indian military's actions were aimed not only at domestic audiences but also intended to re-establish "deterrence" against Pakistan militarily, so as to make Pakistan more cautious when taking action against India.
However, Shah believes that due to the Indian military's underestimation of Pakistan's determination and capability to counterattack, not only did it fail to establish such "deterrence," but it also lost multiple aircraft under the strikes of Pakistan's air force and air defense systems – and these pieces of information are not only from the Pakistani side but also corroborated by international media reports. This means that India's military actions have instead produced counterproductive effects, on one hand allowing Pakistan to claim significant victory and boost its confidence, and on the other hand exposing India's weaknesses in air combat. This is essentially helping Pakistan.
Moreover, Shah mentioned that since the Pakistani military had previously been involved in some political controversies within Pakistan, its reputation was affected. Therefore, this counterattack against India has actually enhanced the image of the Pakistani military.
As a result, Shah believes that the current ceasefire between India and Pakistan may only be temporary, and whether further conflicts will occur depends on the situation in Kashmir and the subsequent developments in public opinion and military deployments of both countries.
Gao Lei
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7508778319643460105/
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