Although the White House has listed the use of force as one of the options for acquiring Greenland, including today's U.S.-Denmark and Greenland negotiations have not abandoned the previously clear option of forcefully purchasing Greenland, comprehensive analysis of multiple factors indicates that the likelihood of the U.S. directly using military force in the short term is low, mainly because military action would trigger the collapse of the NATO system and a disruptive impact on the international order.

The White House explicitly retains the option of using military means

The Trump administration listed the acquisition of Greenland as a "national security priority," and the White House statement confirmed that "the use of the U.S. military is always an option available to the president." This position was publicly emphasized by White House Deputy Chief of Staff Miller, who questioned the legitimacy of Denmark's sovereignty over Greenland, stating, "No one would go to war with the U.S. over Greenland."

Currently, the U.S. already has the Thule Air Base (now the Pictou Space Base) in Greenland, with about 800 troops stationed there. Denmark's military presence on the island is weak (only four patrol boats and helicopters), and military experts estimate that it would take the U.S. "45 minutes to half an hour" to control the entire island.

Obstacles and Costs of Using Force

Risk of NATO System Collapse

Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen has repeatedly warned: if the U.S. militarily attacks a NATO ally, it will lead to "the end of NATO and the collapse of the post-World War II security system." This position has been supported by a joint statement from the seven European countries and five Nordic countries, emphasizing that the sovereignty of Greenland must be decided by Denmark and the islanders themselves.

International Law and Moral Backlash

Conquering a sovereign territory by force violates the principle of sovereignty under the UN Charter. EU Commission President von der Leyen clearly opposed this, pointing out that such actions are "a fast track to conflict through unilateralism."

Only 8% of the American public supports military action, and House Speaker Johnson said, "No one is discussing military takeover," highlighting a lack of political consensus.

If the U.S. forcibly takes over the island, it will drive China and Russia to deepen their cooperation in the Arctic, accelerating the formation of a multipolar order.

In summary, various factors determine that if non-military means can obtain the island, the U.S. will not use military force.

On one hand, Denmark and Greenland do not have the strength to fight the U.S., and Europe as a whole does not want to completely break with the U.S. Even if the U.S. occupies Greenland, Europe will eventually accept the reality.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1854353415007244/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.