[By Guancha Observer Network, Ruan Jiaqi]

According to a report on May 23 by the Malaysian online media "Free Malaysia Today" (FMT), at a forum titled "ASEAN in the Changing Global Order" held at Sunway University on Friday, Jeffrey Sachs, professor at Columbia University and renowned economist, who was invited to speak, said that in the great power competition between China and the United States, ASEAN should "choose China." He believed that if the U.S. forced ASEAN to take sides between China and the U.S., ASEAN should naturally "choose its neighbor"—China.

The report stated that Sachs made this response when asked whether ASEAN could still maintain strategic neutrality.

"The U.S. should not try to force ASEAN to make a choice, as it is not only unfair but also obvious that if ASEAN is forced to choose, it will undoubtedly choose its neighbor—China," he explained. "This is because ASEAN's economic ties with China are deeply intertwined, and it is unimaginable to sever such ties."

Sachs added that ASEAN should maintain good relations with all countries rather than aligning itself with specific nations or groups. He reiterated, "ASEAN is already a highly open region, conducting trade with major economies such as the U.S., Europe, and China. Therefore, the U.S. should not force ASEAN to make such a choice."

On May 23rd local time, Jeffrey Sachs attended the Sunway University forum. FMT

FMT mentioned that in the "tariff chaos" initiated by the U.S. globally, the Trump administration is pressuring various countries, coercing nations seeking exemptions from so-called "reciprocal tariffs" to reduce their trade with China. The U.S. Treasury Secretary openly encouraged negotiating countries to "team up with Washington against China."

In response, Sachs warned that if the U.S. attempts to impose secondary sanctions to obstruct ASEAN-China economic and trade cooperation, "such behavior must be resisted."

"Neighbors need trade connectivity, infrastructure development, and joint river management," he suggested that the ten ASEAN countries should closely cooperate with China in areas such as physical infrastructure construction and connectivity. They should particularly actively participate in China's Belt and Road Initiative, "which is an important positive move promoting high-speed rail, renewable energy, and digital systems construction, benefiting all parties."

In addressing Asian geo-security issues, Sachs also recommended withdrawing foreign military bases. In its head-to-head confrontation with China, the U.S. has military bases in the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea.

"Over time, I believe the U.S. should withdraw (its military bases in the region)," he continued, sarcastically adding, "Trump demanded Japan and South Korea pay for U.S. military services, but I think they should respond by saying, 'Thank you very much, but we don't need to pay. If you want to leave, that's fine too.'"

Sachs reiterated that ASEAN should adhere to the principle of openness. He said, "Stay calm and avoid being drawn into conflicts. (ASEAN needs to clearly state) we do not want to be intermediaries in any conflict, and there is no reason for conflicts to occur."

At a forum focusing on how ASEAN, as a regional leadership group, can play a key role in driving global development, according to the Ministry of Commerce website, on May 20th, a special meeting between China and ASEAN economic ministers was held online. Both sides' economic ministers jointly announced the comprehensive completion of negotiations for the upgrade of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area version 3.0.

A Hong Kong media outlet, the South China Morning Post, reported on May 22nd that amidst ongoing Sino-U.S. trade tensions, China's economic and trade cooperation with ASEAN has strengthened China's regional influence.

The report also cited analysis suggesting that the timing of this negotiation announcement may serve as a strong "chip" for China and ASEAN countries in future trade negotiations with the U.S.

Xu Weijun, a researcher at the Public Policy Institute of South China University of Technology, said he believes the timing of this negotiation conclusion is crucial, "carefully selected." He said, "The negotiations began several years ago, but Trump's tariff shock in April might have made China and ASEAN realize their common interests, accelerating the negotiation process, and now this news has been announced."

Xu Weijun pointed out that amid the U.S. initiating a tariff war globally, China can use this trade agreement as proof of ASEAN's independence and its implicit refusal to follow Washington's orders. He noted, "Before future tariff negotiations with the U.S., China has achieved another victory in trade diversification."

Professor Xin Qiang of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University also pointed out that this trade agreement may help ASEAN become more "united" in its negotiations with the U.S., as the U.S. will pressure ASEAN to take sides.

"ASEAN must not fall into the U.S. divide-and-conquer trap; it must unite to face Washington," he added.

Data shows that ASEAN has become the largest destination for Chinese manufacturing foreign direct investment. Chart by the South China Morning Post.

A report released by Rhodium Group at the end of April showed that since the start of the U.S.-China trade war during Trump's first term, based on the number of announced transactions, ASEAN has become the largest destination for Chinese manufacturing foreign direct investment. Data indicates that over 86% of total investments flowed into industries such as automobiles, information and communication technology, electronics, renewable energy equipment, and consumer goods.

In 2024, China and ASEAN will continue to be each other's largest trading partners for five consecutive years, with bilateral trade growing by 7.8%, reaching $982.3 billion.

According to reports by CNBC, in April, driven by a surge in exports to Southeast Asian countries, China's exports significantly increased, offsetting the impact of a sharp decline in exports to the U.S. due to high tariffs.

Customs data showed that in April, China's total goods trade imports and exports grew by 5.6%. Exports to ASEAN surged by 20.8% (in USD terms), higher than March's 11.6%. Vietnam and Malaysia remain the main destinations for China's exports to ASEAN, while exports to Indonesia and Thailand increased by 37% and 28%, respectively.

This article is an exclusive contribution from Guancha Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7507920789555970587/

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