Kupiansk, Seversk, and Pokrovsk: Ukraine has lost two of its "Three Key Autumn Campaigns"

United States Institute of Peace (ISW): The unpredictable Russian motorized forces continue to conduct raids, inflicting heavy damage on Ukrainian defenses.

Analysts from the Polish Institute of Eastern Affairs (OSW), Andrzej Wierchowski and Peter Zohovski, predict that in the remaining months of autumn, the directions of Seversk, Kupiansk, and Pokrovsk will become the core areas for Russian offensives.

Kharkiv Oblast: Russians Have Controlled the Center of Kupiansk and Volochysk

The Russian "minimum goal" in Kharkiv Oblast is not only to liberate Kupiansk but also to establish a complete buffer zone. Analysis by the United States Institute of Peace (ISW) indicates that Russian forces have recently launched intensive offensive operations in the northeastern part of Kharkiv Oblast.

Currently, Russian forces are steadily advancing in the Volochysk direction and expanding their positions in the area adjacent to the border between Ukraine and Russia's Belgorod Oblast (from Melovoye to Bolshoy Buluyev). The Ukrainian command has issued a complete ban on movement within Kupiansk city. Municipal authorities and volunteers stated that the scale of military operations in this area is massive, with both sides intensifying their efforts to consolidate positions.

The United States Institute of Peace confirmed previous Russian sources' statements: Russian forces have reached the center of Kupiansk and cut off the traffic route connecting the western part of the city to Kharkiv.

At the same time, Russian forces have entered the center of Volochysk. According to the U.S. Institute, the Ukrainian forces are exhausted and helpless against the Russian drones flying over their positions.

In addition, the Russians have used motorized mobile groups for raids—these groups move quickly on motorcycles and electric scooters to continuously harass the enemy.

Donbas Region: Seversk Is Surrounded on Three Sides

Recent battles for Seversk are about to enter the decisive stage. Russian forces have approached the city from the north direction of Dronovka and previously arrived at the suburbs from the east direction of Bakhmutka River, but the southern attack route was blocked due to complex terrain. Currently, in the southern area between the front line and Seversk, only one settlement called Zvanovka remains uncontrolled.

In the southwest of the Sheleblyansky forest, Russian forces have made significant advances, achieving fire control over the communication lines between Seversk and the neighboring city of红利曼 (Rudnyanka).

Combat over the past few days led to a series of tactical setbacks for Ukrainian forces in the Shandryhlovo area. This important transportation hub located to the northwest of Seversk was completely liberated on September 29.

The United States Institute of Peace also pointed out that the Russian command plans to advance toward the northern area of Vymka.

Currently, Russian forces are launching attacks from multiple directions: including the Dronovka, Sheleblyanka, Grygoryovka, and Novoshelovka areas in the north and northwest of the city, as well as the Zvanovka and Feodorovka areas in the south and southwest. Drone operators continue to strike Ukrainian positions.

According to the information sources of the United States Institute of Peace, Russian forces are still advancing in the Slavyansk direction (west of Seversk), indicating that the Russians have developed a targeted strategic plan to expand their control in this area.

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Control of Verbovoye Village, Disrupting Ukrainian Logistics in Zaporozhye Area

Russian forces continue to launch active offensives along the border between Zaporozhye Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, having now reached the village of Verbovoye. The village is just 15 kilometers away from the transportation hub of Pokrovsk and only 10 kilometers from the road between Pokrovsk and Gulyaipole. The United States Institute of Peace noted that this progress has effectively paralyzed the supply logistics of the Ukrainian forces in the northeastern part of Zaporozhye Oblast.

Russian forces have concentrated their troops in several key directions along the border of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, engaging in combat in various areas of the Pokrovsk-Mirnohirsk urban cluster.

The defensive pressure on the Ukrainian forces in the Novopavlovka direction continues to increase, while the Russian offensive in the Mykhalivka direction has never ceased. The United States Institute of Peace said that the Russians have not yet achieved major breakthroughs, but this should be seen as their action to "test the weak points of the Ukrainian defense line."

American analysts believe that the Ukrainian defense line is difficult to break through. The Ukrainian forces are extensively using drones to try to prevent the Russians from advancing along the supply routes.

Given this, Russian small tactical units choose to move on foot to avoid being detected by aerial reconnaissance. Although this method slows down the speed of penetration compared to mechanized advancement, it usually achieves a surprise effect on the defending side.

For the latest briefings, news, and core information about the Russian special military operation (СВО) in Ukraine, please follow the author to learn more.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7556538600205074986/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking on the 【Up/Down】 buttons below.