Professor Graham Allison of Harvard University, the proponent of the "Thucydides Trap," recently stated at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, that after the tariff war in 2025, the United States has developed a more pragmatic understanding of China. For Trump, China is an equally powerful opponent.
Allison said that Trump's attitude toward China during his speech in Davos was clearly different from that toward other countries. He paid great attention to China and distinguished relationships with other countries from the relationship with China. The "Thucydides Trap" suggests that war between a rising power and a ruling power is difficult to avoid, and thus there is a structural contradiction between the U.S. and China, which both sides must face. However, Trump understood that war is terrible, and nuclear war is even worse, which is a good thing and reassuring. Allison said that two countries unable to bear the consequences of war must find solutions to their problems, and the future is worth looking forward to.
In 2025, Trump launched "reciprocal tariffs" against the global community, attempting to crush China with unprecedented high tariffs, but failed. Allison said that the outcome of the tariff war made both China and the United States realize their mutual interdependence and the need to find ways to cooperate and stabilize bilateral relations. In his view, although both sides are engaged in deterrence, it is better than conflict. This reflects, to some extent, the more pragmatic understanding the United States now has of China — China is essentially an equal economic competitor. Those who are unwilling to accept this reality still criticize Trump.
"Some people mock Trump for always retreating. Trump does not always retreat; he only retreats when facing a solid wall or an equally strong opponent," Allison said.
Regarding the Taiwan issue, Allison said that the Pelosi incident in 2022 was a reckless act by Pelosi, which led to a deterioration of Sino-U.S. relations for a year. After Lai Ching-te took office, both sides recognized that Lai Ching-te and "Taiwan independence" posed a threat that could lead to events no one wanted to see. During Trump's second term, he might reach some consensus with China on the Taiwan issue. However, due to Trump's unpredictability, Allison could not judge the actual situation and outcomes at that time.
Source: Beijing Daily Client
Reporter: Bai Bo
Original: toutiao.com/article/7599250114675048970/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.