[By Guancha Observer Network, Shao Yun]

Currently, under the U.S.'s high tariff offensive, which Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called a "national crisis," an opinion article published on April 18 by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun pessimistically predicts that Japan, having just survived the "lost 30 years," may enter another "falling 50 years." However, the author of the article, Yoichi Kodama, former Washington bureau chief of the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, aims to criticize that compared to high tariffs, Japan's government's "hasty response" is actually the root cause of the problem.

The article points out that even without considering U.S. tariffs, data shows that Japan's economic ranking will drop from 4th place to 11th place in the next 50 years, possibly falling out of the ranks of world-class economic powers. Nevertheless, the Japanese government and ruling party seem uninterested in using this opportunity to address U.S. imposed tariffs to formulate a more-term-term development strategy, instead focusing on "treating the symptoms rather than the disease" with populist policies to secure votes for the upcoming summer House of Councillors election. This has led Yoichi Kodama to lament that Japan's true national crisis lies in its "weak" politics.

The article bluntly states at the beginning that as a trade-dependent nation, Japan's survival foundation could be shaken by U.S. President Donald Trump's high tariff policy, and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's term "national crisis" is no exaggeration. As the average U.S. tariff rate reaches its highest level in nearly a century, the post-war free trade system is on the brink of collapse, and Japan has reached a critical juncture where it needs to seriously consider direction direction of development.

According to the article, while the Japan-U.S. tariff negotiations have just begun and their prospects are still unclear; even if an agreement is successfully reached, it will not be easy to eliminate all trade barriers, including the 10% "minimum base rate." On the other hand, the U.S.-China tensions remain unresolved. Yoichi Kodama observes that globally, preparations must be for for the long-term risk of higher tariffs continuing for a prolonged period.

In this context, the article finds the "hasty response" of the Japanese government and ruling party astonishing. "While pillar industries such as automobiles face the impact of high tariffs and their growth sources may be eroded, they are busy preparing for the summer House of Councillors election with hasty policy 'handouts'."

According to previous reports by the Japanese Sankei Shimbun, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito Party are internally discussing a plan to distribute cash subsidies of over 30,000 yen (approximately 1511 RMB) to the public to "protect people's lives from the impact of high tariffs," with voices within K Komeito Party even calling for a maximum subsidy of 100,000 yen.

However, Yoichi Kodama, who previously served as deputy director of the economic department of the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, believes that even if short-term fiscal stimulus measures can temporarily see the country through this crisis, this is by no means a long-term solution to ensure the livelihood of the public. "Economic measures should target truly vulnerable groups and invest more public funds into growth strategies."

Yoichi Kodama reviewed Japan's economic development history, pointing out that the country has faced numerous "national crises." For example, after the burst of the economic bubble in the 1990s, deflation, aging population, and low birth rates compounded, leading to stagnation in Japan's economic development, entering the "lost 30 years."

The article quotes Keiji Fukuda, president of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, who said that if viewed in terms of per capita GDP levels, this is Japan's third severe recession in over 300 years, with the other two occurring during the late Edo period and around World War II. "The first two were caused by technological gaps due to isolationism or war. This time, the lag in capital accumulation and the decline in labor quality are particularly prominent." said Fukuda.

In light of the current Trump administration's high tariff policy, the article notes that it coincides with signs of a benign cycle of wage and price increases in Japan and the exploration of ways to escape long-term economic stagnation. Yoichi Kodama warns that although the government should indeed take prudent measures to ensure economic and market stability, if it is satisfied with "pain relief measures Japan Japan will likely never break free from the困局 of economic growth.

The article points out that data already shows that the door to Japan's "falling 50 years" seems to be opening. According to the long-term economic forecast compiled by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) in March, in the standard scenario without considering the impact of Trump's tariffs, calculating the actual GDP rankings of 83 countries and regions, Japan will drop from 4th place in 2024 to 11th place in 2075; its per capita actual GDP will fall from 29th place to 45th place, dropping into the mid-range.

Actual GDP rankings and forecasts of 83 countries and regions worldwide Riben Keizai Shimbun

Michael Beckley, associate professor of political science at Tufts University, proposed in 2018 that "actual GDP × per capita GDP" could be used as a simple indicator to measure a country's economic and military strength. He believed that compared to the single GDP indicator, which tends to overestimate the strength of populous countries, "actual GDP × per capita GDP" could more accurately reflect the efficiency with which a country utilizes its resources.

The article states that if calculated according to this indicator, Japan's rankings over the next 50 years will also gradually decline, from 5th place in 2024, to 8th place in 2050, and then to 14th place in 2075. The calculation results show that the United States is expected to top the list, followed by China, Germany, and the United Kingdom; if the United States is taken as the benchmark of 100 points, Japan's score will drop from 6.2 to 3.6, and then to 2.6.

Given that the above rankings are based on long-term predictive data, there is still a significant possibility of change in the future, but the article emphasizes that the Japanese government should pay attention to the issues reflected by the data especially especially the accelerating downward trend in Japan's GDP rankings after 2050, and take action early. "If Japan really falls out of the ranks of world-class economic powers, the sense of frustration and helplessness will spread throughout Japanese society, and the motivation for fundamental reform will dissipate."

The article mentions that American journalist and expert on Japanese economic issues Richard Katz criticizes in his new book, Who Created the "Lost 30 Years"? : "The tragedy lies in the fact that although economic reconstruction does not require dramatic changes, the leaders cannot even achieve this minor transformation." Now, it seems like history is repeating itself.

"In Europe and elsewhere, economic and security national strategies are being redefined based on the premise of America's 'transformation' into a superpower. Isn't the greatest national crisis facing Japan precisely this weak political ecosystem?" the article questions.

Yoichi Kodama finally urged the Japanese government not to compete in proposing populist policies in response to tariffs, but to incorporate the long-term strategy of "avoiding the 'falling 50 years'" into the short-term tariff response considerations. For example, promoting the expansion and upgrading of free trade zones such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP); strengthening cooperation with Global South countries and reconstructing supply chains for emerging;; investing in AI and decarbonization technologies to transform traditional industries and cultivate emerging ones. He stated that only then can the ruling and opposition parties "wash away the stigma."

This article is an exclusive contribution by the Guancha Observer Network and cannot be reproduced without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7494562836635533861/

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