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According to Russian media reports, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov clearly stated that if Armenia chooses to join the EU, it will no longer be able to retain its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

He emphasized that although Armenia has the right to make its own decisions, it is completely impossible to participate in both unions simultaneously.

This basically means a clear declaration. The meaning is straightforward: choose the EU, and you can't expect to enjoy the customs and market benefits of the EAEU anymore. For Armenia, this is not an easy decision. Security depends on whom, money comes from where, and how to guard the border—all need to be recalculated.

Armenia's mindset has changed in recent years. The Nagorno-Karabakh issue has been full of twists and turns, and they feel that relying on Russia won't get them a security guarantee. So they have turned to Europe and other partners. France has supplied cannons, India has sold missiles, and the EU has sent an observation mission. These are all signals indicating a desire to break away from past dependencies.

But leaving the EAEU isn't a simple matter. First, many workers work in Russia, and remittances are a major source of income for many families. In a sanctions environment, transfers are already difficult, and if they leave, the flow of money would become even more blocked. Second, cheap energy is due to contracts with Russia. Leaving the union could lead to higher gas and electricity prices. Third, the market issue: Armenia exports a lot to Russia and within the union, so changing the market would require new customers, new standards, and new certifications, which involve time and cost.

The EU is a distant goal. Joining it isn't something that can be done overnight; negotiations take years, and changes to tax systems, judiciary, anti-corruption measures, and competition rules are required. Border inspections also need upgrading. The EU is not just a security organization but a whole system of life and business. If Armenia wants to join, it must first withstand the pain of the transition period.

Russia's cards are not only verbal threats. Border guards, bases, energy, and trade are all levers. Now that Russia has made its position clear, it is sending a signal to Armenia and also to other member states, warning them not to try to have their cake and eat it too. However, Russia cannot afford to apply full pressure; it is still fighting a war and adjusting its economy, so its actions won't be too harsh, but it won't be soft either.

Not only does the region watch this situation. Azerbaijan will be watching Armenia's moves, and Turkey will also calculate the consequences. The EU is willing to step forward, but when it comes to real security issues, whether it can provide reliable protection is the most worrying point for Armenia. The US will support, but it won't commit to placing people and equipment directly at the border.

Domestic politics are also complex. The ruling party emphasizes the shift, while the opposition stresses traditional security. There will be voices on the streets, and media debates. But ordinary people care about wages and prices, whether their children can study abroad, and whether their family members can return home safely. Political slogans that don't translate into daily life will struggle to convince people for long.

There is also a reality: geographical location determines the channels. Going north requires passing through Russia, going west requires crossing Turkey, going south requires looking at Iran, and going to the sea requires relying on Georgia. Changing the system means rethinking logistics—not just one road or one vehicle, but the entire trade network. Money and time are needed.

Is there a compromise? For example, leaning westward for security, but keeping economic ties unchanged. Lavrov's statement already gives the answer: it's not possible. In the future, it's likely to be a gradual decoupling—first making tariffs and standards compatible, slowly changing the export structure, and then talking about identity issues. This way, risks can be spread, but the timeline will be extended, and political pressure will remain constant.

If Armenia truly chooses the EU path, it will face short-term difficulties, but in the long run, it may gain stability and new markets. The prerequisite is that Europe is willing to invest resources, provide projects, build roads and ports, and digital infrastructure, and offer import and export support. If it's only verbal support, the transformation may be forced to stop halfway.

Russia aims to maintain its influence and will add more incentives in terms of systems and markets, pulling other member states together to keep the circle stable. At the same time, it will emphasize reliability and mutual benefit in its rhetoric, reducing past criticisms of unfulfilled promises. Whoever better meets practical needs will have more say.

This issue won't end quickly. What we will see next are more statements, more试探 actions, and more small-scale clashes. What Armenia needs to think carefully about is that once it goes out, it must bear the costs; once it stays, it must fix the security loopholes. Neither side is easy, but dragging on without a decision is even harder. What do you think they will do?

Original: toutiao.com/article/1854960432328715/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.