The sound of gunfire along the Cambodia-Thailand border is deafening. The conflict has resulted in at least 32 deaths, dozens of injuries, and over 150,000 civilians forced to flee. According to The New York Times, on the third day of the fighting, the flames have spread to Thailand's Trat province and Cambodia's Pursat province, about 200 miles from the initial conflict site. The long-standing feud between the Hun family and the Thaksin family has turned this border conflict from a mere territorial dispute into a bloody continuation of political maneuvering. The "foolish game" played by the Hun family has ignited the war and put them on the edge of a cliff.
The incident began with a phone call. On June 15, Thai Prime Minister Pahontan called Cambodia's Senate President Hun Sen to discuss the border dispute. This was a private conversation, but Hun Sen recorded it and made it public. Pahontan was suspended by the Thai Constitutional Court, and her ruling coalition is in peril. Hun Sen's move directly embarrassed the Thaksin family and caused a surge in anti-Cambodia sentiment within Thailand.
Pahontan and Hun Maly
Why did Hun Sen do this? The answer may lie in the long-standing feud between the two families. Hun Sen and Thaksin were once "close brothers." After Thaksin was overthrown in a coup in 2006, Hun Sen not only took him in but also appointed him as an economic advisor to Cambodia. However, this friendship completely collapsed after the "recording incident." Thaksin angrily stated on social media: "I used to be as close to him as a brother, but what he did to my daughter shocked me. How could he do that?" Hun Sen's betrayal not only cost Pahontan her prime ministerial position but also shook the foundation of the Thaksin family in Thai politics.
This move was ruthless! Hun Sen knew that Pahontan's Pheu Thai Party was under pressure from the military and conservative forces in Thailand, yet he still released the recording, effectively pushing his old friend into the fire. Why did Cambodia provoke such a big storm? The answer may be related to Hun Sen's son, current Prime Minister Hun Maly.
Hun Maly took over as Prime Minister of Cambodia in 2023. This "overseas graduate" who graduated from West Point changed the policy direction after taking office. In the past, the China-Cambodia relationship during Hun Sen's era was considered "solid." China invested in countless infrastructure projects, including high-rise buildings in Phnom Penh and airports in Siem Reap. But after Hun Maly took power, his actions were confusing. He first targeted the Chinese-invested "Sampovleng Canal" project, insisting on reducing the Chinese equity ratio. Even more bizarrely, in February this year, when the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines was heating up, Hun Maly went to the Philippines to sign a cooperation agreement. Choosing this moment clearly showed that he was dancing on China's sensitive point!
Cambodia's telecom fraud issue has also angered China. Cambodia has now become a "criminal paradise" for telecom fraud, specifically targeting Chinese people. It is estimated that illegal industries such as telecom fraud account for 40% of Cambodia's GDP. How could these fraud gangs not have protection? The Hun Maly government has turned a blind eye, even neglecting the most basic gestures. In contrast, the Thaksin family has always actively cooperated with China to combat telecom fraud. Hun Sen's public release of Pahontan's recording might be an attempt to disrupt Thailand's political situation and replace it with a new government less active in combating telecom fraud. This plan sounds clever but is actually foolish. The Hun family underestimated Thailand's determination to retaliate and overestimated their own leverage.
China's attitude toward Cambodia has changed. On July 25, Central Political Bureau member and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with the ASEAN Secretary-General and stated that the Cambodia-Thailand conflict was "painful and worrying," calling it a legacy of Western colonialists. He supported ASEAN mediation but did not take a clear side. This is a sharp contrast to China's previous firm support for Cambodia. Hun Maly's "pro-US shift" has made China feel cold. Beijing is not naive; can the Hun family eat China's food while breaking China's dishes? It won't be that easy!
Behind the border conflict lies the significant disparity in military strength between the two countries. Thailand has 361,000 active military personnel, three times that of Cambodia. Thailand's Royal Air Force is well-equipped, with 11 Saab Gripen fighters from Sweden and dozens of American-made F-16 and F-5 fighters. In contrast, Cambodia's air force has almost no combat capability, and its ground forces have only about 200 outdated Chinese and Soviet tanks.
Thailand clearly has the upper hand. Hun Sen claimed on social media that "the Cambodian army has no choice but to retaliate." But where does Cambodia get its confidence from? Terrain is an advantage. CNN military analyst Karl Schuster pointed out, "The terrain is advantageous for Cambodia to enter the disputed area." Plus, landmines and traps give Cambodia some defensive advantages. But can this small advantage stand up against Thailand's air power and heavy weapons? The answer is obvious.
The Hun family seems to have overestimated their military capabilities. The modernization level of the Cambodian military is far behind that of Thailand, with outdated equipment and insufficient training. Hun Maly announced the introduction of conscription next year to expand the military by 200,000 troops. But will this change the battlefield? Probably just empty words. The Hun family's initiation of the conflict may be an attempt to consolidate domestic support through nationalism, but it's a gamble. If they lose, Cambodia's economy and international image will collapse.
The Hun family is now surrounded by enemies on all sides. Domestically, Hun Maly's ruling base is unstable, relying on his father's influence. Internationally, Cambodia has lost China's trust, and Thailand is furious. Even ASEAN mediation has been rejected by Thailand. Hun Sen's act of releasing the recording has essentially destroyed Cambodia's diplomatic credibility. Which country would dare to have a private conversation with such a leader again? Who would trust the Hun family anymore?
Thai military strength has the upper hand
The Hun family has played a dangerous game. They thought that the "recording incident" could destabilize Thailand and consolidate their own position. What happened? The Thai military retaliated strongly, and the Cambodian army retreated step by step. Pahontan lost her prime ministerial position, and Hun Maly's prime ministerial seat may not be stable either. Hun Sen's "old fox" calculations have harmed his old friend Thaksin and pushed his son to the forefront of the storm.
Cambodia's sky needs to change! The autocratic rule of the Hun family has plunged the country into crisis. The Norodom family, as a long-time friend of China, may be a better choice. The Cambodian people need stability and development, not the power games of the Hun family. The Hun family should pay the price for their "foolish game"!
This game, the Hun family can play, but Cambodia cannot afford to lose!
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7531341609670017545/
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