[By GuanchaNet Columnist Chang Luowen]
"I want to build a truly great Republic of Korea."
On April 10, Lee Jae-myung, former leader of South Korea's largest opposition party, released a campaign video, officially announcing his candidacy for the South Korean presidency.
Four months after the Yoon Suk-yeol fiasco, there is finally hope for South Korean politics to return to normalcy.
In his campaign video, Lee Jae-myung proposed a new national vision, "Korean Initiative."
Looking back on the road traveled, he almost failed at the starting line.
For Lee Jae-myung, this campaign path has been fraught with difficulties. At his peak, he was a TV show star, mayor of Seongnam City, governor of Gyeonggi Province, close ally and successor to Moon Jae-in, and leader of the ruling party, just one step away from the presidency. But it was this one step that prevented him from leaping forward.
In 2016, during President Park Geun-hye's administration, Choi Soon-sil's interference scandal broke out. Lee Jae-myung delivered an impassioned street speech calling for Park Geun-hye's resignation, becoming the first in South Korean politics to demand her resignation. Leveraging this opportunity, in October 2021, Lee Jae-myung became the ruling party's presidential candidate, expecting to smoothly take over from Moon Jae-in. However, due to the progressive camp's overreach in squeezing smaller parties, which led to retaliation, he narrowly lost to Yoon Suk-yeol in the end. Subsequently, because of his "flagship" potential being exposed, he faced intense attacks from the conservative camp.
In September 2023, Lee Jae-myung announced a hunger strike while carrying five charges. His specific demands were to uphold democracy, urging Yoon Suk-yeol to apologize for "destroying people's livelihoods and democracy"; opposing Japan's nuclear contaminated water discharge; and thoroughly reshuffling the cabinet. By the morning of September 18, already diabetic and having fasted for 19 days, Lee Jae-myung exhibited symptoms of dehydration and rapidly dropping blood sugar levels, nearly losing consciousness and was rushed to a nearby hospital for treatment.
On September 18, 2023, Lee Jae-myung was hospitalized after health deterioration during his 19-day hunger strike. Photo source: NEWS1.
On the same day, the prosecution issued an arrest warrant for Lee Jae-myung on charges of dereliction of duty. This political storm ended with Lee Jae-myung avoiding detention, but at the time, apart from the supporters protesting against authoritarianism, there were also voices suggesting that Lee Jae-myung was overacting, using lofty principles to evade legal consequences. However, it cannot be denied that through this incident, Lee Jae-myung began internal reforms within the party, building a "pro-Lee faction," and gained support and blessings from Moon Jae-in outside the party, officially taking up the banner of the progressive camp and making it clear that he would persist in countering Yoon Suk-yeol's group until the next election, determined to remove the conservatives from power.
With the joint efforts of Lee Jae-myung and the progressive camp, public opinion polls have consistently held their own against the conservative camp, but an unexpected event tilted the scales of public opinion.
At 10:00 AM on January 2, 2024, Lee Jae-myung was attacked while attending an event in Busan, South Korea. After being treated in the hospital, he underwent surgery lasting one hour and forty minutes. The lead surgeon sutured Lee Jae-myung's injured jugular vein and performed vascular reconstruction. The chief surgeon stated that Lee Jae-myung had a 1.4 cm stab wound on his left neck, with 60% of the internal jugular vein severed.
On January 2, 2024, Lee Jae-myung was attacked at the scene. Photo source: Ming Pao.
Eight days later, the police released preliminary findings, stating that the suspect admitted to attacking Lee Jae-myung to prevent him from becoming president, which was an extreme crime motivated by subjective political beliefs, with no evidence of a mastermind behind the attack. The attacker was indicted by the prosecution on January 29, 2024, for attempted murder and violations of the Election Law, and was sentenced to 15 years in prison in a final verdict on February 13, 2025. This incident propelled Lee Jae-myung into the "saint" status, making him the leading favorite in the polls. It also laid the groundwork for the subsequent night of martial law when Lee Jae-myung scaled the walls of the National Assembly and rallied widespread support.
Of course, everything has two sides. Starting in 2021, Lee Jae-myung has been burdened with dozens of charges, with requests for hearings and criminal investigations reaching over 100 items related to him. At least five deaths have occurred in connection with cases involving him. Although most of the charges and investigations can be recognized as political persecution and retaliation by the conservatives, some coincidences in the answers are too suspicious.
During Lee Jae-myung's tenure as governor of Gyeonggi Province, his first secretary of the office, Jeon, was found dead at home on March 9, 2023, leaving a six-page handwritten suicide note. The police believed Jeon died by suicide. In the note, Jeon accused himself of injustice, hoping that Lee Jae-myung, as party leader, would put aside politics, which was also to prevent further sacrifices among those who worked with Lee Jae-myung.
In July 2022, a 40-year-old man under investigation by the police regarding Mrs. Lee Jae-myung's misuse of a corporate credit card was found dead at home.
In January 2022, the举报者 Li, who reported Lee Jae-myung's lawyer receiving improper compensation, was found dead in a motel. The police closed the case citing "death due to illness."
In late 2021, two individuals involved in the "Daegan-dong Real Estate Scandal" in Seongnam City committed suicide during the investigation, and Lee Jae-myung was the mayor of Seongnam City during the Daegan-dong New Town project.
At the time, Lee Jae-myung's stance was not to link these tragic events to himself. Among those directly linked, only Jeon, who left a suicide note, chose the ultimate path due to the prosecutor's systematic harassment, feeling wronged and afraid.
Even so, this case became a key point for the conservative camp to use the judicial system to target Lee. He has been repeatedly prosecuted by the prosecution, with the most threatening charge being violating the Public Official Election Act. If convicted, imprisonment and fines are minor issues; losing political rights for ten years will effectively end his political career prematurely.
In November 2024, the Seoul Central District Court ruled that Lee Jae-myung lied as a presidential candidate and sentenced him to one year in prison, suspended for two years. Lee Jae-myung then appealed. On March 26, 2025, the Seoul High Court overturned the original judgment, acquitting Lee Jae-myung.
However, on April 27, 2025, the prosecution appealed to the Supreme Court (South Korean Constitutional Court). The case will now be reviewed by the Supreme Court. According to the Public Official Election Act, the Supreme Court should rule on the case within three months of the prosecution's appeal. Whether the ruling will be made before or after the election is another focal point. If Lee Jae-myung's case is ultimately ruled guilty, he may be ineligible to run for public office for several years. His current confident smile may not last.
Lee Jae-myung's Last Push
This might explain why, even though Yoon Suk-yeol was formally impeached, acquitted, and the political obstacles were removed, Lee Jae-myung became increasingly cautious and low-profile, always stating that he would resign as chairman of the Democratic Party after the election schedule was confirmed and enter the campaign phase, fearing any misstep. He waited until the government announced June 3 as the voting day before officially resigning as party chairman and entering the race.
Luckily, he has been leading by a wide margin for years, with little dissent within the Democratic Party. Even some politicians previously intending to run as spoilers have withdrawn. For example, former lawmaker Park Yong-jin stated, "To ensure the Democratic Party's victory is not a 'small victory' but a 'great victory' for all citizens, I will abandon my candidacy." Those still intending to run, such as former lawmakers Kim Doo-kwan, former Prime Minister Kim Bu-moon, Governor of Gyeonggi Province Kim Dong-yun, and former Governor of Gyeongnam Province Kim Kyung-soo, also have considerable hesitation and are unlikely to interfere with Lee Jae-myung significantly.
On the morning of April 7, at the Supreme Council meeting held in the National Assembly, Chairman Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party gave a speech. Photo source: Hankyoreh.
Moreover, Lee Jae-myung may be brewing larger plans. On April 7, the Speaker of the National Assembly, Yu Won-sik, who belongs to the Democratic Party, floated a "test balloon" by proposing that the election vote coincide with a constitutional amendment referendum. Lee Jae-myung quickly expressed his position the same day, stating that while constitutional revision is necessary, the priority now is to end internal strife. While the development of democracy is important, the more pressing issue is to prevent the destruction of democracy.
Beyond moral arguments, he also has mature technical considerations: "four-year consecutive terms, transfer of the Audit Office to Congress, prime minister recommendation system, runoff voting system, strengthening of basic rights, and other issues are controversial and difficult to achieve concrete results, and may instead become a cause of national division. Such complex issues should be promised by presidential candidates to the public, and implemented promptly after the election. Current regulations do not allow advance voting. If the constitutional amendment referendum is held on the same day as the election, only formal voting can be conducted, without setting up advance polling stations. As a result, the number of participants in the constitutional amendment referendum is likely to fall short of the majority of the population (leading to failure of the amendment)."
This move clearly indicates that Lee Jae-myung and Yu Won-sik are collaborating in "breaking down barriers," testing the social atmosphere to see if the public's aversion to politics and fear of dictatorship caused by the Yoon Suk-yeol martial law incident has sufficiently translated into the political energy needed for constitutional revision.
With only one step remaining before the finish line, Lee Jae-myung's core task at present is to win the presidency. For him, amending the constitution is merely a matter of timing. He stated, "Incorporating the spirit of the May 18 Gwangju Democratization Movement into the preamble of the constitution and strengthening conditions for martial law to prevent military coups, the People's Power Party should not oppose these. If the revision of the Referendum Law makes constitutional amendment feasible, these contents can be immediately advanced and handled." The People's Power Party, considering its own interests, also supports revising the Referendum Law, placing the constitutional amendment referendum and the presidential election on the same day.
There is a technical detail here. According to Article 128, Paragraph 2 of the South Korean Constitution, if the constitutional amendment succeeds, it does not apply to the incumbent president at the time of the proposal, and "the incumbent president at the time of the proposal" is Acting President Han Deuk-soo. This means that if Lee Jae-myung successfully wins the presidency, he may become the first Korean president since democratization who can serve two consecutive eight-year terms.
Unlike the progressives who are proceeding steadily and waiting patiently, the conservative ruling party, People's Power, although setting a goal of "preventing Lee Jae-myung from winning," knows that the chances are slim, and the potential candidates are showing signs of "each looking out for themselves."
Hong Joon-pyo, mayor of Daegu, said, "I am pursuing my dream by going to Seoul," effectively announcing his resignation as mayor to run for president. Current Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo said, "I have no personal agenda in running; I just feel this country shouldn't be developing this way," which can be considered an official announcement of candidacy. Former party leader Han Dong-heon, Mayor of Seoul Oh Se-hoon, lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo, and former lawmaker Ryu Sung-min are still in the deliberation stage but are expected to announce their candidacies soon. Lee Joon-seok, candidate of the reformist third force New Party, has already begun his campaign by participating in volunteer activities for forest fires, marking him as one of the earliest contenders.
Lee Jae-myung's Challenges
However, even if Lee Jae-myung successfully clears the final hurdle and ascends to power, he will still need to invest significant effort in solving several thorny problems.
Firstly, a minor issue concerning Lee Jae-myung's character: whether he should grant amnesty to Cho Kuk soon after assuming office. Cho Kuk worked tirelessly for the party and for Moon Jae-in, but as a comrade, he has already parted ways politically, and his charisma, credentials, and age suggest a bright future in politics. Whether, when, and how to rescue him is a critical distinction between the progressive camp's "election faction" and "ruling party."
In March 2024, Lee Jae-myung, representative of the Democratic Party, shakes hands with Cho Kuk, representative of the Reformist Party, during a visit to the National Assembly. Photo source: Yonhap News.
More significant issues include three major ones. First, how to balance political reconciliation and legal justice. The prosecution's lawsuit against Yoon Suk-yeol is still ongoing, and many questions surrounding First Lady Kim Keon-hee remain constrained by presidential confidentiality privileges. Now, without such protection, whether the Ministry of Land's decision to open an exit near Kim Keon-hee's family land constitutes favoritism, and whether the suspicions of Kim Keon-hee accepting gifts and manipulating stock prices will resurface, remain unknown factors.
Will Lee Jae-myung pursue a thorough purge or extend leniency, or wait until Yoon is truly imprisoned before granting amnesty to balance procedural justice and political reconciliation? This is a major test of the moral standards and political wisdom of the progressive camp. Moreover, with everyone in South Korea now wary of politics, how to ease the atmosphere, depoliticize society, and maintain the electoral advantage of the progressive party is a challenging choice.
Second, balancing political agendas with industrial and economic development. South Korea is the country most affected by U.S. tariffs, as unlike Vietnam, its manufacturing industry is heavily influenced by the U.S. market, and high-end industries like semiconductors are gradually migrating to the U.S. under various forces. Coupled with the continuous decline of the stock market and the gloomy outlook for major industries in 2025, whether Lee Jae-myung will maintain the progressive camp's anti-American and detaching stance, enduring short-term pain to return to Asia and take the first step toward breaking free from economic colonialism and returning to Asia's embrace, is a major strategic, even historical, decision. After all, the "leaning on both China and America" strategy will become increasingly unsustainable.
Third, balancing politics with national and ethnic development. Without considering the unimplemented constitutional revision plan, based on the current system, the "administration-unification" period of the progressive camp is approximately two years. What to do during these two years is a choice between sparing no expense to prioritize completing Moon Jae-in's constitutional revision plan to save South Korea's future or maintaining governance, even if the existing system remains unchanged, to ensure the dominance of Congress. The statements from various parties at present can only be taken as references.
These three issues correspond to how South Korea reconciles with its past, how it aligns with modernity, and how it plans for the future. They require the next South Korean president to provide a serious response to the people and history of South Korea and beyond.
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Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7491852378237305370/
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