Pashinyan's Last Battle — Now or a Year Later?

Why did Armenian authorities decide to suppress the Armenian Apostolic Church

Author: Dmitriy Rodionov

Photo: Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan of the Tavush Diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church at a protest in Republic Square, Yerevan

Archbishop Mikayel Ajapahyan of the Armenian Apostolic Church was arrested and sentenced to two months in prison.

Armenian lawyer Vardan Arutyunyan said, "The basis for the case is an interview from two years ago, which is absurd. In judicial practice, such cases are impossible unless they involve political persecution."

The criminal charges against Ajapahyan include publicly calling for a coup, undermining territorial integrity, abandoning sovereignty, and violently subverting the constitutional order. This clergyman claims these charges are fabricated.

On Friday, special forces of the State Security Service, wearing masks, raided the spiritual center of the Armenian Apostolic Church, Echmiadzin, trying to arrest the head of the Syunik diocese, but were blocked by clergy.

Eventually, Ajapahyan tried to drive to the investigation committee with his lawyer's assistance, but was prevented by gathered believers. Subsequently, the archbishop still went to Yerevan.

Evidently, the suppression of the church will continue. Previously, Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan had been arrested and was also accused of attempting a coup. Furthermore, a so-called "coup conspiracy" has been exposed, with almost all prominent opposition figures and senior clergy of the Armenian Apostolic Church accused of involvement.

Has Pashinyan launched a decisive offensive aimed at completely eliminating the political stage? The election seems to be a year away...

Political analyst Mikhail Nezhmakov believes: "It makes sense to strengthen pressure on the opposition before the election."

"Even if these events trigger large-scale protests, it is likely that the protests will subside in a few months. However, there could still be a new wave of protests in Armenia around the 2026 elections."

"Free Media" (SP): What is he afraid of? Last time, despite a sharp drop in popularity after handing over Karabakh, his party still received more votes than all the opposition combined in the election...

"In the 2021 parliamentary election, the ruling 'Civil Contract' party received support, many because of fear of a war restart, believing that with Nikol Pashinyan, the possibility of this happening was lower."

Now, such concerns in Armenian society may have decreased.

Certainly, Nikol Pashinyan may still focus on other issues — for example, further alignment with the EU — in 2026 to mobilize at least some swing voters.

Overall, however, it seems that Pashinyan's team is currently more focused not on electoral mobilization against the opposition in future elections, but on the ability of the opposition to form a street protest network.

"SP": Before this, Pashinyan always managed to get out of danger, even from seemingly desperate situations, but will it be the same now? Has he crossed the line that might make people unable to tolerate him anymore?

"Taking tough measures against representatives of the church certainly brings the risk of re-mobilizing Pashinyan's opponents. However, it should be noted that the tension between the prime minister and senior clergy of the Armenian Apostolic Church is not a new phenomenon. For example, in May 2023, the highest spiritual council of the Armenian Apostolic Church stated in a statement that the stance of the Armenian authorities in the negotiation process with Baku was 'dangerous'."

The bishop who later became a leader of street protests, Bagrat Galstanyan, had already declared in the summer of 2023 that there was 'no relationship' between the Armenian Apostolic Church and the state authorities. That is, those who valued the position of church clergy most likely had already left Pashinyan's supporters' ranks."

"SP": Why the church? What special threat does it pose to him?

"There may be public figures among the clergy, who would be seen as relatively new faces on the political scene, and not directly related to the old opposition leaders with significant negative evaluations."

Bagrat Galstanyan, the bishop, can again be mentioned, who became a public figure in one of the largest protests in Armenia in recent years during the spring and early summer of 2024. Additionally, the church structure may be viewed by the authorities as another potential network for organizing protests."

"SP": There are reports that ambassadors of European countries stationed in Armenia have asked the authorities to explain, warning that 'open anti-democratic measures are being taken'. Does this mean that the 'masters' are distancing themselves from him, waiting to see who will take over?

"Reports citing anonymous sources should be treated with caution. However, it cannot be ruled out that certain European diplomats have indeed asked representatives of the Prime Minister's team why they are exerting such strong pressure on their opposition."

For the Armenian Prime Minister, the EU's current priority is not to publicly support him on conflicts with church or opposition figures, but to take new initiatives in further alignment, such as visa regime liberalization.

Brussels is still sending such signals — for example, the announcement of a meeting of the Armenia-EU Partnership Council on July 7 to 9."

"SP": What about Russia? Is there someone in Russia that he can rely on?

"Recent statements by Russian officials regarding the situation in Armenia may remain cautious. Because Samvel Karapetyan is a Russian citizen, relevant individuals may ask more explicit but still cautious questions. It can be recalled that the day before his arrest, the spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, stated that he 'faces... threats for strange reasons'."

The stance of Russian officials towards non-Russian citizens arrested in Armenia may be more cautious.

There may be three main reasons for Russia's cautious strategy. Currently, the relationship between Moscow and Yerevan is experiencing a relative 'thaw', and the Russian leadership may not want to disrupt this relationship at this stage. Moscow may suspect that the opposition to Nikol Pashinyan now has the capability to organize such large-scale protests to force him to step down.

Finally, Russian officials openly supporting Pashinyan's opposition may have side effects — at least causing dissatisfaction among some undecided audiences in Armenia, who would view this as external interference.

There are many politicians in Armenia who advocate closer ties with Russia. For example, the 'Armenia' faction and the 'I Have Honor' faction in the current National Assembly are led by former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, respectively, and adhere to this approach.

However, it should be noted that the negative evaluation of political figures in this circle is quite high. Therefore, one of the problems facing the Armenian opposition is whether they can find new faces who can attract swing voters to lead them."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521608494437384767/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking on the 【top/down】 buttons below.