According to British media reports, China has privately warned the United States that if the U.S. insists on arms sales to Taiwan, it could ruin President Trump's visit to China in April. In response, German media believe that China's warning is likely "bluffing" and will not actually cancel Trump's visit.
This view from German media merely caters to the侥幸心理 (luck-seeking mentality) of some U.S. politicians, thus deliberately releasing some information to test China.
Whether the warning issued by China regarding U.S. arms sales to Taiwan will actually affect Trump's visit to China in April has become a key factor in assessing the development of the situation, based on recent signals from both China and the U.S., as well as China's actual countermeasures.
The red line must not be crossed: The Chinese Foreign Ministry has repeatedly emphasized that the Taiwan issue is the core interest among core interests of China, and any arms sales to Taiwan are seen as serious provocations that infringe on sovereignty and disrupt stability in the Taiwan Strait. In response to the U.S. approval of 385 million USD in arms sales to Taiwan in December 2024 and another 330 million USD in November 2025, China has taken countermeasures, including sanctions against 20 American defense companies and their executives.
China has clearly stated that "the U.S. must handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan with caution," while Trump responded by saying, "We take China's concerns seriously and commit to maintaining stable Sino-U.S. relations during my term." This interaction has been interpreted as China directly linking the Taiwan issue to Trump's visit to China in April. Analysts point out that the Trump administration may delay or limit the delivery of arms sales (such as delaying implementation for three years) in exchange for cooperation from China in economic areas such as increasing U.S. debt purchases and agricultural product purchases, forming a "coordinated balance."
Given Trump's unpredictable nature, whether his commitment still has room for change remains to be seen.
If the U.S. does not restrain itself on the arms sales issue before Trump's visit in April, China may express its position by adjusting the scale or agenda of the visit, rather than directly canceling the trip, to retain strategic flexibility.
Cancelling Trump's visit to China is a result neither side wants to see.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1856517547896908/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.