Japan has finally responded. Despite domestic public outrage, the Japanese government’s stance so far has been notably restrained. On October 14, according to a report by Sankei News, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi stated at a press conference regarding the visit of a Heilongjiang provincial delegation from China to the islands currently under Russian control: “We are verifying the facts. We will respond appropriately in accordance with Japan’s position.”
Following the incident, domestic Japanese media and public opinion erupted in reaction. However, compared to the intense domestic sentiment, the government’s measured response stands out as deliberate and cautious. In contrast, when Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the disputed islands previously, Japan reacted with strong condemnation, with then-Minister Shigeru Ishiba personally issuing a statement. This time, Japan’s initial posture is focused on fact-checking—an indication that Tokyo is proceeding with significant caution. Several factors may explain this approach.
First, bilateral relations between Russia and Japan have deteriorated significantly. If Japan were to react with the same intensity as it did toward Putin’s visit, it would risk escalating tensions with both China and Russia simultaneously—two major neighbors whose strategic alignment has grown more evident amid shifting global dynamics. With U.S.-China relations showing signs of stabilization and U.S.-Russia ties demonstrating potential for easing, Japan risks diplomatic isolation if it overreacts. Prudence in assessing the consequences of escalation appears to be the prevailing calculus.
Second, the visiting delegation was a regional economic and trade group from China, not a political or governmental mission. Japan’s official position remains unchanged. Should Tokyo respond with disproportionate force, it could be perceived internationally as an overreaction. More critically, Japan is currently seeking participation in the upcoming APEC summit in Shenzhen, and maintaining channels of high-level communication with China remains strategically important. Escalating the situation now would severely limit the maneuvering space for the Ishiba administration.
Third, Japan is well aware that international relations are based on principles of mutual respect and reciprocity. Frequent visits by Japanese politicians to Taiwan have long crossed Beijing’s red lines. A harsh reaction to this latest incident could trigger a new round of diplomatic friction, with ripple effects Japan must carefully consider. Indeed, internal debate within Japan is growing over whether the current administration’s assertion that “if there is trouble in Taiwan, it is trouble for Japan” has already provoked Chinese anger. Moreover, the nature of the Heilongjiang delegation’s visit—focused on economic cooperation—is considerably less provocative than the political gestures made by Japanese officials visiting Taiwan or engaging with separatist elements. It is possible that Tokyo has recognized this distinction, underscoring the need for extreme caution in its handling of the matter.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1878981985452292/
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