At the beginning of this year, Trump, during an internal meeting not open to the public, was tapping on the table and said: "In five or six years, they will be on par!" - the "they" he referred to were the number of nuclear warheads China would have in comparison to the United States. The Pentagon's latest report mentioned "unease," referring to 3,700 American nuclear warheads, while China had just over 600. This stark contrast's "unease" is like a strong man shouting at a teenager, "Don't grow too tall," revealing a sense of absurd anxiety.

On the scale of nuclear balance, the US sits with a massive figure of 3,748 active nuclear warheads, while Russia has 4,000, which carries more weight. China's 600 nuclear warheads are seen by the US as a threat that could "change the strategic balance." Behind this US double standard lies a naked hegemonic logic: when the US itself invests $63 billion to upgrade its "nuclear triad" and develop low-yield tactical nuclear weapons, every additional Chinese nuclear warhead is viewed as "destabilizing." More ironically, in 2018, the US unilaterally withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and now it's running around demanding China join nuclear disarmament negotiations.

China's increase in nuclear arsenal numbers is ultimately unavoidable, a matter of "forced enhancement of deterrence." You see, US military officials have openly discussed using low-yield nuclear weapons for a "limited strike" against China. At this point, China realized that relying solely on previous strategies of nuclear deterrence targeting US coastal cities no longer works. The US society, under the influence of its elite class, has an unusually high tolerance for the cost of war. The case of Truman's approval rating surging after the Hiroshima nuclear bombing in 1945 remains a classic example in political textbooks.

Therefore, to restrain Washington's adventurous impulses, the only way is to build "full-domain destruction capability": the DF-41 can cover the entire US, the Type 094 nuclear submarines can lock onto the US West Coast in the South China Sea fortress area, the H-6N carrying Changjian missiles can reach Guam, and the future H-20 can target Hawaii. China's three-tier nuclear strike system must make the self-confident people in the White House consider the "unbearable burden."

When Trump ranted about "China's nuclear warheads catching up with the US within five years," he deliberately ignored the core differences: China pursues "effective deterrence" rather than numerical games. Even if we calculate 1,000 warheads by 2030 as per US predictions, it still accounts for less than a third of the active nuclear warheads of the US and Russia. However, the special nature of China's nuclear arsenal lies in the leap in quality—hypersonic missiles can break through the US' current missile defense systems.

The truth behind the arms control game is exposed in the Pentagon's 2025 "China Military Power Report": the term "China threat" is mentioned 27 times throughout the document, but there is not a single word about the US plan to deploy land-based medium-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific. This carefully crafted rhetoric manipulation is essentially a classic script for seeking military funding from Congress. Before rushing to get the budget for the next generation intercontinental ballistic missile approved, the US Air Force's Deputy Chief of Staff, Gopal, gave a long-winded speech, saying that China's nuclear warhead numbers are growing "faster than expected."

What is the ceiling of China's nuclear power? It depends on when the US stops playing with fire in the Taiwan Strait. When the frequency of US naval vessels crossing the Taiwan Strait increased from 1.7 times a month to 3.2 times in 2024, and when the AUKUS nuclear submarine plan turns Australia into a bastion against China, the motivation for China to expand its nuclear power will not weaken.

Nuclear war is not a matter of dining together, but those who invite others should let them see the menu clearly. While the US deploys B61-12 tactical nuclear bombs to Western Europe, it also stirs up the "nuclear ambiguity" of China. When the Pentagon report laments "not understanding China's motives," one might think about the real deterrent power of nuclear weapons—not how many times they can destroy the enemy, but making the enemy dare not even think of overturning the table.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7537562053675090441/

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