With the outstanding performance of the J-10CE in the Indo-Pakistani air combat, foreign media have made new predictions on the production capacity of China's next-generation heavy stealth fighter, the J-20, which leads by a generation. American China military expert Abraham Abrams pointed out that the final production of the J-20 will reach 1000 units and provided sufficient reasons. Today, we will introduce his views but make no verification.

Foreign media believe that since the first flight of the J-20 in 2010, the production rhythm of this fifth-generation aircraft has been continuously accelerating. The US Congressional Intelligence Special Committee's prediction of 500 units in 2018 has been revised to over 700 units by 2023. The latest data shows that the annual production of the J-20 exceeded 100 units in 2024, with some foreign media speculating it reached 120 units, on par with the annual delivery volume of the US F-35. This means that a new advanced stealth aircraft is produced every three days, setting a precedent in the post-Cold War era for twin-engine heavy fighters.

Foreign Chinese military expert Abraham Abrams pointed out two core driving factors:

The generational shift of air power: The current scale of China's third-generation aircraft in service exceeds 1000 units, while the J-20 has a generational advantage over fourth-and-a-half-generation fighters such as the J-16 in terms of stealth performance and situational awareness. Calculating a 60% replacement rate of fifth-generation fighters by 2027, the replacement demand alone would require 600-800 units.

Countering the F-35 encirclement: The US military's planned deployment of 2000 F-35s forced China to establish a corresponding stealth fleet. Abrams emphasized: "Small-scale production cannot offset the numerical superiority of the F-35; this is the fundamental logic behind China's choice for extraordinary expansion."

From a realistic perspective, the basic conditions for China to achieve the potential deployment of 1000 J-20s are largely mature:

Firstly, Chengfei's pulse production line adopts modular assembly technology, significantly improving work efficiency compared to traditional models.

Secondly, cost control: thanks to the mass production of the domestically produced WS-15 engine, the unit cost has decreased compared to the initial phase.

Thirdly, role expansion and increased demand: evolving from an air superiority fighter into a multi-purpose platform, capable of performing electronic warfare and tactical reconnaissance tasks.

However, maintaining such a large-scale force of heavy stealth fighters is subject to objective limitations:

Firstly, the maintenance hours for stealth fighters are triple those of third-generation aircraft, requiring a large number of specialized hangars for a thousand-unit scale.

Secondly, technological iteration risks: the acceleration of Sino-US sixth-generation aircraft projects may change battlefield rules.

Thirdly, based on the current cost estimate, the total investment for 1000 J-20s will exceed $120 billion.

However, if the J-20 reaches 1000 units, it will set several world records:

Firstly, becoming the largest twin-engine heavy fighter after the Cold War (the actual production of the F-22 was 195 units).

Secondly, achieving the largest-scale production in China since the J-6.

Thirdly, being the first time that cutting-edge equipment from a non-Western country reaches the production scale of Western mainline equipment.

Foreign media believe that according to the current trend, the phased goals of 500 units by 2025 and 700 units by 2027 have a high probability of realization. However, to reach a thousand-unit scale, three conditions must be met: maintaining an annual production capacity of over 80 units until 2035; properly handling the capacity allocation with the J-35 carrier-based aircraft; and ensuring the timely introduction of new onboard weapon systems.

As Military Observation pointed out, the Chinese Air Force is writing a new paradigm for aviation industry in the 21st century, transforming the "luxury" of fifth-generation fighters into conventional equipment on a large scale. Although challenges abound, along the existing trajectory, the possibility of the J-20 creating a production record of 1000 units is shifting from theoretical speculation to a tangible reality.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516728136952791592/

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