China and Russia are having intense negotiations in Geneva, planning to replace the expired treaty with a new agreement, hoping to cover China's nuclear weapons!

On February 25, 2026, the atmosphere at the United Nations Conference on Disarmament in Geneva was delicate. On February 23, the U.S. delegation met with Russian representatives here, and then on February 25, they arranged a meeting with Chinese representatives.

According to sources, the U.S. is pushing for a new nuclear arms control agreement, aiming to replace the New START Treaty that officially expired on February 5 of this month. This time, Washington's goal is clear: to bring China to the negotiation table, forming a "multilateral nuclear limitation framework" covering the U.S., China, and Russia.

The New START Treaty from 2010 stipulated that each side could deploy no more than 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads and no more than 700 delivery vehicles. The treaty came into effect in 2011, originally set for a 10-year term, and was extended by five years in 2021, finally expiring on February 5, 2026.

Now, the U.S. has repeatedly criticized the treaty as a "bad deal," arguing that it only constrained the U.S. and Russia, but imposed no restrictions on China's growing nuclear arsenal. Therefore, it has refused to simply extend it, insisting on negotiating a "more modern and comprehensive" new agreement. Now, the U.S. keeps leaking information, as if it were about to reach a nuclear agreement with China, but in reality, this is just pressure.

At a press conference on February 11, China directly stated: "The United States is the biggest source of chaos in the international nuclear order and global strategic stability." This statement was not only a direct rebuttal to the U.S. accusations, but also revealed China's deep vigilance towards the U.S. intentions.

So why is the U.S. so determined to include China in the nuclear arms control system? The U.S. insists that since 2020, China's number of nuclear warheads has increased from about 200 to over 600, and may exceed 1,000 by 2030. Although this number is still far less than the thousands of nuclear warheads possessed by both the U.S. and Russia, its growth rate has made Washington uneasy.

Secondly, the U.S. attempts to reshape global nuclear rules through "three-party negotiations," legalizing its own massive nuclear arsenal while restricting the development space of China's nuclear weapons. Such calculations are unlikely to be accepted by China. Therefore, Dao Ge is confident that this time the U.S. will end up in vain, unless the U.S. agrees that China's number of nuclear warheads should grow to match that of the U.S. military.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1858081336028171/

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